2020 United States presidential election in Connecticut

2020 United States presidential election in Connecticut
	November 3, 2020
	November 3, 2020
Turnout	79.70%
Biden 50–60% 60–70%	Trump 50–60%
	Municipal results
President before election; Donald Trump; Republican	Elected President ; Joe Biden; Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Connecticut was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Connecticut voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the state's primary elections were postponed until August 11, 2020, marking the first time that the modern presidential primary season has extended into August. By that time, incumbent President Donald Trump of the Republican Party and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party had already clinched enough delegates to become the presumptive nominees of their respective parties. Furthermore, both the Democratic and Republican National Conventions were scheduled one and two weeks afterward, respectively, essentially making the Connecticut primary races pro forma.

Biden won the state by 20 points, a notable improvement from Hillary Clinton's 13-point win in the state in 2016. He fared especially well in Fairfield County, an ancestrally Republican area, as well as the Hartford suburbs. Biden also came within 5 points of flipping traditionally Republican Litchfield County, having previously voted Democratic in 2008, and 4.2 points of flipping traditionally Democratic Windham County, having previously voted Democratic in 2012. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Connecticut came from college-educated voters with 64% (a large voting bloc in this state), White women with 60%, and Latinos with 71%. Additionally, Biden won over white voters (which composed 81% of the electorate) with 55%.[3] Biden won a combined 70% in large cities and 62% in suburban areas. Biden is also the first presidential nominee ever to exceed 1 million votes in the state. His total is also the current highest that any candidate in any race in Connecticut has received, surpassing the previous record of 1,008,714 that Richard Blumenthal received in his 2016 Senate race. At the same time, Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Windham County since Woodrow Wilson in 1916.[4]

Connecticut was one of sixteen states where President Trump received less percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 election.[lower-alpha 1]

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 19, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[5] Then on April 17, they were further pushed back to August 11.[6]

Republican primary

The state had 28 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention, all going to Trump.[7]

2020 Connecticut Republican presidential primary
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates
Donald Trump	71,667	78.4%	28
Uncommitted	12,994	14.2%
Rocky De La Fuente (withdrawn)	6,791	7.4%
Total	91,452	100%	28

Democratic primary

2020 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary[8]
Candidate	Votes	%	Delegates[9]
Joe Biden	224,500	84.90%	60
Bernie Sanders (suspended)	30,512	11.54%
Uncommitted	5,975	2.26%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn)	3,429	1.30%
Total	264,416	100%	60

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[10]	Safe D	September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[11]	Safe D	September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12]	Safe D	July 14, 2020
Politico[13]	Safe D	September 8, 2020
RCP[14]	Likely D	November 3, 2020
Niskanen[15]	Safe D	July 26, 2020
CNN[16]	Safe D	August 3, 2020
The Economist[17]	Safe D	September 2, 2020
CBS News[18]	Likely D	August 16, 2020
270towin[19]	Safe D	August 2, 2020
ABC News[20]	Safe D	July 31, 2020
NPR[21]	Likely D	August 3, 2020
NBC News[22]	Likely D	August 6, 2020
538[23]	Safe D	September 9, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls


Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 2]	Margin
FiveThirtyEight	until October 24, 2020	October 25, 2020	59.5%	33.7%	6.8%	Biden +25.8

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020	2,031 (LV)	± 3.5%	38%[lower-alpha 4]	60%	-	-	–	–
Swayable	Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020	367 (LV)	± 6.2%	33%	64%	2%	1%	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	3,782 (LV)	–	35%	63%	-	-	–	–
Sacred Heart University	Oct 8–21, 2020	1,000 (A)	± 3.02%	26%	51%	-	-	2%	20%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	1,415 (LV)	–	37%	61%	-	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	1,009 (LV)	–	35%	64%	-	-	–	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	1,360 (LV)	–	39%	59%	-	-	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	574 (LV)	–	32%	65%	-	-	–	3%
SurveyUSA	May 19–24, 2020	808 (RV)	± 4.5%	33%	52%	-	-	7%[lower-alpha 5]	8%
Quinnipiac University	Apr 30 – May 4, 2020	945 (RV)	± 3.2%	33%	56%	-	-	3%[lower-alpha 6]	7%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant	Mar 24 – Apr 3, 2020	1,000 (A)	± 3.0%	34%	47%	-	-	–	–
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant	Feb 24 – Mar 12, 2020	1,000 (A)	± 3.0%	36%	52%	-	-	–	–
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant	Dec 16, 2019 – Jan 2, 2020	1,000 (A)	± 3.0%	32%	52%	-	-	–	16%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant	Sep 17 – Oct 2, 2019	1,000 (A)	± 3.2%	33%	52%	-	-	–	15%

Former candidates

with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Pete Buttigieg (D)	Undecided
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant/Institute for Public Policy	Dec 16, 2019 – Jan 2, 2020	1000 (A)	± 3.%	33%	47%	20%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant	Sep 17 – Oct 2, 2019	1,000 (A)	± 3.2%	34%	46%	20%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Kamala Harris (D)	Undecided
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant	Sep 17 – Oct 2, 2019	1,000 (A)	± 3.2%	34%	47%	19%

with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Bernie Sanders (D)	Undecided
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant	Mar 24 – Apr 3, 2020	1,000 (A)	± 3.0%	37%	48%	–
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant	Feb 24 – Mar 12, 2020	1,000 (A)	± 3.0%	38%	50%	–
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant	Dec 16, 2019 – Jan 2, 2020	1,000 (A)	± 3.0%	35%	52%	13%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant	Sep 17 – Oct 2, 2019	1,000 (A)	± 3.2%	35%	51%	14%

with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[lower-alpha 3]	Margin of error	Donald Trump (R)	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Undecided
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant/Institute for Public Policy	Dec 16, 2019 – Jan 2, 2020	1000 (A)	± 3.0%	36%	49%	16%
Sacred Heart University/Hartford Courant	Sep 17 – Oct 2, 2019	1,000 (A)	± 3.2%	35%	49%	16%

Results

2020 United States presidential election in Connecticut[24]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Joe Biden Kamala Harris	1,080,680	59.24%	+4.67%
	Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	715,291	39.21%	-1.72%
	Libertarian	Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen	20,227	1.11%	-1.85%
	Green	Howie Hawkins Angela Walker	7,538	0.41%	-0.98%
	Write-in		544	0.03%
Total votes			1,824,280	100.00%

By county

County	Joe Biden Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Jo Jorgensen Libertarian		Howie Hawkins Green		Other		Margin		Total votes cast
County	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	Total votes cast
Fairfield	297,505	62.90%	169,039	35.74%	4,593	0.97%	1,681	0.36%	172	0.04%	128,466	27.16%	472,990
Hartford	283,368	63.06%	159,024	35.39%	5,039	1.12%	1,773	0.39%	132	0.03%	124,344	27.67%	449,336
Litchfield	50,164	46.65%	55,601	51.70%	1,280	1.19%	485	0.45%	14	0.01%	-5,437	-5.06%	107,544
Middlesex	56,848	57.31%	40,665	40.99%	1,210	1.22%	444	0.45%	31	0.03%	16,183	16.31%	99,198
New Haven	242,629	58.05%	169,892	40.65%	3,661	0.88%	1,693	0.41%	105	0.03%	72,737	17.40%	417,980
New London	79,459	56.92%	57,110	40.91%	2,256	1.62%	757	0.54%	22	0.02%	22,349	16.01%	139,604
Tolland	44,006	54.63%	34,819	43.23%	1,274	1.58%	398	0.49%	49	0.06%	9,187	11.41%	80,546
Windham	26,701	46.78%	29,141	51.06%	914	1.60%	307	0.54%	14	0.02%	-2,440	-4.27%	57,077
Totals	1,080,680	59.24%	715,291	39.21%	20,227	1.11%	7,538	0.41%	539	0.03%	365,389	20.03%	1,824,275

By congressional district

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	35%	63%	John Larson
2nd	44%	55%	Joe Courtney
3rd	39%	60%	Rosa DeLauro
4th	35%	64%	Jim Himes
5th	44%	55%	Jahana Hayes

Notes

The other fifteen states were Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
"Someone else" with 7%
"Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%

References

Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
"Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
"Connecticut Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
"The Political Graveyard: Windham County, Conn". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
"Connecticut governor says primaries moved to June". CNN. March 19, 2020.
Dixon, Ken (April 17, 2020). "Connecticut's presidential primary will be delayed further by coronavirus: August 11". Connecticut Post.
"Connecticut Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
"August 2020 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary". Connecticut Secretary of State. Retrieved August 28, 2020.
"2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Connecticut Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved August 19, 2020.
"2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
"POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
"Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
"2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
"Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
"Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
"2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
"2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
"ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
"2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
"Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
"2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
"Candidate List November 2020 Election". Connecticut Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.

External links

Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Connecticut", Voting & Elections Toolkits
"Connecticut: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
"League of Women Voters of Connecticut". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
Connecticut at Ballotpedia

This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.

[5] The other fifteen states were Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.

[othercalc-25] Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

[key-26] Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear

[27] Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size

[28] "Someone else" with 7%

[29] "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%

[1] Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[2] "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.

[:0-3] "Connecticut Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.

[4] "The Political Graveyard: Windham County, Conn". politicalgraveyard.com. Retrieved November 28, 2020.

[6] "Connecticut governor says primaries moved to June". CNN. March 19, 2020.

[7] Dixon, Ken (April 17, 2020). "Connecticut's presidential primary will be delayed further by coronavirus: August 11". Connecticut Post.

[GP-GOP-8] "Connecticut Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved August 11, 2020.

[9] "August 2020 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary". Connecticut Secretary of State. Retrieved August 28, 2020.

[10] "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Connecticut Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved August 19, 2020.

[11] "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[12] "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[13] "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.

[14] "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.

[15] "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.

[niskanen-16] 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.

[17] David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.

[18] "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.

[19] "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.

[20] "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.

[21] "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.

[22] "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.

[23] "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.

[24] "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.

[30] "Candidate List November 2020 Election". Connecticut Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.

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