2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota

The 2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] South Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota
November 3, 2020
Turnout73.88%[1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 261,043 150,471
Percentage 61.77% 35.61%
County Results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in South Dakota
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
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2016
2020
Republican
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2012
2016
2020
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House elections
Special elections
State government
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Gubernatorial elections
Attorney General elections
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Ballot measures
2006
Amendment C
2008
Measure 9
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2020
Amendment A
Measure 26

Trump carried South Dakota by 61.8%–35.6%, or a margin of 26.2%. Biden performed four points better than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a safe red state.

Analysis

South Dakota, a majority-White, mainly-rural state in the Midwestern Plains, is normally a Republican stronghold at both the state and presidential levels, despite being more populated than--and voting to the left of--its Northern counterpart. It hasn't been won by a Democrat since LBJ carried it in 1964, and has only been so much as competitive in three elections since then: 1976, Bill Clinton's 1992 and 1996 victories, and 2008.

Despite Trump's win in the state, Biden flipped majority-Native American Ziebach County back to Democratic after it flipped red in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump held the majority-Native American counties of Bennett, Mellette and Jackson, while he actually grew his support in Corson County, which is completely encompassed by the Standing Rock Indian Reservation. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump carried Caucasians with 63%; they comprised 94% of the electorate.[4] A sparsely populated state with a rural and conservative lifestyle, South Dakota has an agrarian populist streak[5] to which Trump made direct appeals. He campaigned personally in the state, using Mount Rushmore as a backdrop to cast himself as waging battle against a "new far-left fascism".[6]

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 29 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7]

Democratic primary
This section is an excerpt from 2020 South Dakota Democratic presidential primary[edit]
2020 South Dakota Democratic presidential primary[8]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[9]
Joe Biden 40,800 77.48% 13
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 11,861 22.52% 3
Total 52,661 100% 16

Libertarian nominee

Prior to the South Dakota primaries, the 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[10] Safe R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[11] Safe R November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] Safe R November 3, 2020
Politico[13] Safe R November 3, 2020
RCP[14] Safe R November 3, 2020
Niskanen[15] Safe R November 3, 2020
CNN[16] Safe R November 3, 2020
The Economist[17] Safe R November 3, 2020
CBS News[18] Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin[19] Safe R November 3, 2020
ABC News[20] Safe R November 3, 2020
NPR[21] Likely R November 3, 2020
NBC News[22] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[23] Safe R November 3, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
270 to Win September 20 – October 21, 2020 November 1, 2020 42.0% 52.5% 5.5% Trump +10.5
FiveThirtyEight until October 31, 2020 November 1, 2020 38.9% 54.0% 7.1% Trump +15.1
Average 40.4% 53.3% 6.3% Trump +12.9

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 606 (LV) ± 5.5% 63%[lower-alpha 3] 36% – – –
Nielson Brothers Polling Oct 24–28, 2020 484 (LV) ± 4.45% 55% 40% 3% – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,098 (LV) – 57% 41% – – –
Mason-Dixon Oct 19–21, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4% 51% 40% – 3% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 354 (LV) – 58% 41% – – 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 277 (LV) – 59% 38% – – 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 396 (LV) – 62% 35% – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 160 (LV) – 61% 37% – – 2%

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[24]

Donald Trump and
Mike Pence
Republican Party		 Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris
Democratic Party		 Jo Jorgensen and
Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Dan Lederman
Larry Rhoden
Jason Ravnsborg		 Joseph M. Yracheta
Nicole A. Gronli
Randy Seiler		 Devin Saxon
Tracey Quint
N/A

Results
2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota[25]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		261,043 61.77% +0.24%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris		 150,471 35.60% +3.86%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 11,095 2.63% -3.00%
Total votes 422,609 100.00%

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size

See also

References
  1. "Voter turnout". Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. "South Dakota Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  5. Cohen, Micah (August 24, 2012). "In South Dakota, Only the Farm Trumps Conservatism". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  6. "Remarks by President Trump at South Dakota's 2020 Mount Rushmore Fireworks Celebration | Keystone, South Dakota". The White House. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  7. "South Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  8. "2020 Primary State Canvass Report and Certificate" (PDF). electionresults.sd.gov. South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved August 12, 2020.
  9. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  10. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  11. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  12. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  14. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  15. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  16. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  17. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  18. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  19. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  20. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  21. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  22. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  23. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  24. "Certificate of Ascertainment of Election" (PDF). South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  25. "General Election - November 3, 2020" (PDF). sdsos.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
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