2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi
The 2020 United States presidential election in Mississippi was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Mississippi voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Mississippi has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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 County Results
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| Elections in Mississippi |
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Trump scored a convincing victory in Mississippi, a socially conservative Bible Belt state. Biden's main support was in the western delta counties next to the Mississippi River, and in Hinds County, home to the state capital Jackson. In contrast, Trump's margins came from the regions bordering the Gulf Coast, the northeast Appalachian area, and the Jackson and Memphis suburbs. Trump's strength also came from winning 81% of the white vote, which constituted 69% of the electorate. 57% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases and they backed the president 82%-17%. Trump also received 89% of the evangelical vote, which made up 54% of the electorate.[3] Biden managed to flip Warren County.
Mississippi was one of sixteen states where President Trump received less percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 election.[lower-alpha 1] Also notably, Madison County, a traditionally Republican suburban county that borders Jackson, once again voted to the left of the state as a whole, after doing so in 2016 and even breaking narrowly for Democratic nominee for Governor and Attorney General Jim Hood in 2019. Madison broke 57%-41% for Trump in 2016, but about 55%-43% for Trump in 2020.
Analysis
Mississippi, a conservative state in the Deep South and greater Bible Belt, has not been won by a Democrat since the 1976 victory of fellow Southerner Jimmy Carter. Trump easily carried the Magnolia State on election day by a 16% margin.
Despite Biden's loss statewide, he did manage to flip Warren County, home to Vicksburg, which had voted Democratic in 2012 but flipped back to the GOP column in 2016.
In other elections, Republican Cindy Hyde-Smith defeated Democrat Mike Espy by almost 10 points in the Senatorial race. Although Hyde-Smith underperformed Trump, she still won by a somewhat comfortable margin.
In referendums, a statewide referendum to approve a new flag after their controversial state flag, which contained the Confederate battle ensign, was retired. The new alternative passed with over 71% of the vote. Medical marijuana was approved in the state with more than 61% of voters supporting the legalization. The less restrictive of the medical marijuana bills, Initiative 65, passed with over 57% selecting the less restrictive of two options to legalize medical marijuana. The state also voted to rid the electoral college system that had been in place to elect statewide officials. Over 74% of Mississippians voted to remove the provision that a candidate must receive the support of a majority of Mississippi Legislature House districts.
This is the fourth consecutive election in which Mississippi voted more Democratic than each of its neighboring states.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Mississippi came from Caucasian born-again/Evangelical Christians, of whom 89% supported Trump. 59% of voters believed abortion should be illegal in all or most cases, and these voters backed Trump 83%–16%. As is the case in many Southern states, there was a stark racial divide in voting for this election: 82% of Caucasians supported Trump, while 93% of African-Americans supported Biden.[4]
Primary elections
The primary elections were held on March 10, 2020.
Republican primary
Incumbent President Donald Trump was challenged by two candidates: businessman and perennial candidate Rocky De La Fuente of California, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts.[5]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 240,125 | 98.6% | 40 |
| Bill Weld | 2,292 | 0.9% | |
| Rocky De La Fuente | 1,078 | 0.4% | |
| Total | 243,495 | 100% | 40 |
Democratic primary
Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden were the major declared candidates still active in the race.[7]
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 222,160 | 80.96 | 34 |
| Bernie Sanders | 40,657 | 14.82 | 2 |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 6,933 | 2.53 | 0 |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 1,550 | 0.56 | 0 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 1,003 | 0.37 | 0 |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 562 | 0.20 | 0 |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 450 | 0.16 | 0 |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 440 | 0.16 | 0 |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 378 | 0.14 | 0 |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 258 | 0.09 | 0 |
| Total | 274,391 | 100% | 36 |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Safe R | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[11] | Safe R | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[12] | Safe R | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[13] | Safe R | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[14] | Likely R | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[15] | Safe R | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[16] | Safe R | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[17] | Likely R | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[18] | Likely R | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[19] | Safe R | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[20] | Safe R | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[21] | Likely R | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[22] | Safe R | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[23] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
Polling
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 2] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | September 20 – October 26, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | 40.0% | 57.0% | 3.0% | Trump +17.0 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until October 26, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | 39.7% | 55.0% | 5.3% | Trump +15.3 |
| Average | 39.9% | 56.0% | 4.1% | Trump +16.1 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 1,461 (LV) | ± 4% | 61%[lower-alpha 4] | 37% | - | - | – | – |
| Data For Progress | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 562 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 55% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 1%[lower-alpha 5] | – |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 507 (LV) | ± 5.3% | 55% | 41% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 6] | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 2,116 (LV) | – | 62% | 37% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 782 (LV) | – | 55% | 44% | - | - | – | 1% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 607 (LV) | – | 61% | 36% | - | - | – | 3% |
| Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[upper-alpha 1] | Aug 28–30, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 50% | 40% | No voters | - | No voters[lower-alpha 7] | 6% |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group/Mike Espy[upper-alpha 2] | Jul 30 – Aug 9, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53%[lower-alpha 8] | 43% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 733 (LV) | – | 59% | 39% | - | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 425 (LV) | – | 63% | 35% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Chism Strategies | Jun 2–4, 2020 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 41% | - | - | 6%[lower-alpha 9] | 3% |
| Chism Strategies/Millsaps College | Apr 8–9, 2020 | 508 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 38% | - | - | 7% | 7% |
| Mason-Dixon | Feb 26–28, 2020 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 56% | 41% | - | - | – | 3% |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||
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Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
756,764 | 57.60% | -0.26% | |
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
539,398 | 41.06% | +1.00% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
8,026 | 0.61% | -0.58% | |
| Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
3,657 | 0.28% | ||
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
1,498 | 0.11% | -0.20% | |
| Independent | Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker |
1,317 | 0.10% | ||
| American Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
1,279 | 0.10% | -0.23% | |
| American Solidarity | Brian Carroll Amar Patel |
1,161 | 0.09% | ||
| Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
659 | 0.05% | ||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | 1,313,759 | ||||
See also
Notes
- The other fifteen states were Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Refused" with no voters
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- "Someone else" with 6%
- Partisan clients
- The Consumer Energy Alliance is a pro-Keystone XL lobbying group
- Poll sponsored by Espy's campaign
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved January 27, 2021.
- "Mississippi Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- Harrison, Bobby (February 27, 2020). "Who's on the ballot for Mississippi's March 10 primary?". Mississippi Today. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
- "2020 Candidate Qualifying List" (PDF). Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved March 10, 2020.
- Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- "2020 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
- "Mississippi Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- "2020 General Election". Mississippi Secretary of State. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Mississippi
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Mississippi", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Mississippi: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Mississippi". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Mississippi at Ballotpedia
