2020 United States presidential election in Maryland
The 2020 United States presidential election in Maryland was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Maryland voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Maryland has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]
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| Turnout | 74.63% 2.65 pp[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County results
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| Elections in Maryland |
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 Government |
Joe Biden easily carried Maryland 65.7% to 32.2%, a margin of 33.2%, somewhat better than Clinton's 26.4% in 2016. Prior to the election, all news organizations considered Maryland "Safe Biden". Formerly a swing state,[4] Maryland is known for being one of the most progressive states in the East Coast, as well as the single most progressive in the South, and has been a Democratic stronghold since 1992.
Biden carried Montgomery, Prince George's, and Baltimore counties, and the city of Baltimore, with 77.5%, 89.3%, 58.8%, and 87.3% of the vote, respectively. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Maryland came from 94% of African-Americans, who represented 28% of the electorate. 74% of voters believed the criminal justice system needed a complete overhaul or major changes, and they opted for Biden by 73%.[5]
Biden flipped the Washington, D.C.-area exurban county of Frederick County, as well as Talbot County--home to Easton--Democratic for the first time since 1964.[6] He also flipped Kent County, located on the Eastern Shore, blue, likely due to an increase in urbanization in neighboring Middletown, Delaware. In a third county on the Eastern Shore, Wicomico, Biden failed to prevail but nevertheless held Trump to the first plurality (rather than majority) win for a Republican nominee since 1996.
Biden's performance was the strongest in Maryland since fellow Democrat Horatio Seymour's in 1868. In terms of statewide vote share, Trump performed worse than any Republican since 1912, when the national Republican vote was split by former President Theodore Roosevelt's third-party run against both President William Howard Taft and New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson. Even landslide losers Herbert Hoover in 1932, Alf Landon in 1936, and Barry Goldwater in 1964 managed higher vote shares than Trump's 32.15%. Apart from 1912, only in the antebellum elections of 1856 and 1860 did the Republican nominee perform worse in the state than Trump did in 2020.
Maryland was one of seventeen states where President Trump received less percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 election.[lower-alpha 1] The Republican presidential vote share has now declined for four elections in a row in the Old Line State, the longest such run of declines for either party in any state. It was also one of five states in the nation in which Biden's victory margin was larger than 1 million raw votes, the others being California, New York, Massachusetts and Illinois.
Primary elections
The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 17, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[7]
Republican primary
Donald Trump won the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 38 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[8]
Democratic primary
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[10] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 879,753 | 83.7% | 96 |
| Bernie Sanders (suspended) | 81,939 | 7.8% | |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 27,134 | 2.6% | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 7,180 | 0.7% | |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 6,773 | 0.6% | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 6,670 | 0.6% | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 5,685 | 0.5% | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 4,226 | 0.4% | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 2,662 | 0.3% | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 2,291 | 0.2% | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 897 | 0.1% | |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 760 | 0.1% | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 671 | 0.1% | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 406 | 0.0% | |
| Uncommitted | 23,726 | 2.3% | |
| Total | 1,050,773 | 100% | 96 |
Green primary
| 2020 Maryland Green Party primary[11][12] | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | |||||||||||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||||||||
| Howie Hawkins | 34 | 53.1% | 34 | 61.8% | 34 | 64.15% | 34 | 68% | |||||||
| Dario Hunter | 16 | 25% | 16 | 29.1% | 16 | 30.18% | 16 | 32% | |||||||
| Kent Mesplay | 2 | 3.1% | 3 | 5.5% | 3 | 5.66% | Eliminated | ||||||||
| Write-ins | 2 | 3.1% | 2 | 3.6% | Eliminated | ||||||||||
| Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry | 1 | 1.6% | Eliminated | ||||||||||||
| Empty ballot | 9 | 14.1% | Eliminated | ||||||||||||
| Total votes | 64 | 100.0% | |||||||||||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[13] | Safe D | September 10, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[14] | Safe D | September 4, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Safe D | July 14, 2020 |
| Politico[16] | Safe D | September 8, 2020 |
| RCP[17] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[18] | Safe D | July 26, 2020 |
| CNN[19] | Safe D | August 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[20] | Safe D | September 2, 2020 |
| CBS News[21] | Likely D | August 16, 2020 |
| 270towin[22] | Safe D | August 2, 2020 |
| ABC News[23] | Safe D | July 31, 2020 |
| NPR[24] | Likely D | August 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[25] | Safe D | August 6, 2020 |
| 538[26] | Safe D | September 9, 2020 |
Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 2] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | September 29 – October 24, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 60.0% | 31.7% | 8.3% | Biden +28.3 |
| Real Clear Politics | September 4 – October 24, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 60.3% | 31.0% | 8.7% | Biden +29.3 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until October 27, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 61.5% | 32.0% | 6.5% | Biden +29.5 |
| Average | 60.6% | 31.6% | 7.8% | Biden +29.0 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 3] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 3,216 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 31%[lower-alpha 4] | 66% | – | – | – | – |
| Swayable | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 503 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 31% | 67% | 2% | 0% | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 5,820 (LV) | – | 32% | 66% | – | – | – | – |
| Gonzalez Maryland Poll | Oct 19–24, 2020 | 820 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 33% | 58% | – | – | 3%[lower-alpha 5] | 6% |
| Goucher College | Sep 30 – Oct 4, 2020 | 776 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 30% | 61% | 2% | 2% | 3%[lower-alpha 6] | 2% |
| Change Research/Our Voice Maryland | Sep 29 – Oct 1, 2020 | 650 (V) | ± 4.55% | 32% | 61% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,364 (LV) | – | 31% | 67% | – | – | – | 2% |
| OpinionWorks | Sep 4–11, 2020 | 753 (LV) | – | 30% | 62% | – | – | 3%[lower-alpha 7] | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 1,813 (LV) | – | 31% | 66% | – | – | – | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 1,911 (LV) | – | 32% | 66% | – | – | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 1,175 (LV) | – | 34% | 64% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Gonzalez Maryland Poll | May 19–23, 2020 | 810 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 31% | 59% | – | – | – | 6% |
| Goucher College | Feb 13–19, 2020 | 718 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 35% | 60% | – | – | 1%[lower-alpha 8] | 4%[lower-alpha 9] |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
with Donald Trump and Tulsi Gabbard
with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
with Donald Trump and Tom Steyer
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat
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Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,985,023 | 65.36% | +5.03% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
976,414 | 32.15% | -1.76% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
33,488 | 1.10% | -1.76% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
15,799 | 0.52% | -0.77% | |
| Bread and Roses | Jerome Segal John de Graaf |
5,884 | 0.19% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 20,422 | 0.67% | -0.94% | ||
| Total votes | 3,037,030 | 100% | |||
County summary
| County | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Allegany | 9,158 | 29.89% | 20,886 | 68.16% | 597 | 1.95% | -11,728 | -38.28% | 30,641 |
| Anne Arundel | 172,823 | 55.82% | 127,821 | 41.28% | 8,973 | 2.90% | 45,002 | 14.53% | 309,617 |
| Baltimore County | 258,409 | 62.28% | 146,202 | 35.24% | 10,321 | 2.49% | 112,207 | 27.04% | 414,932 |
| Baltimore City | 207,260 | 87.28% | 25,374 | 10.69% | 4,827 | 2.03% | 181,886 | 76.60% | 237,461 |
| Calvert | 22,587 | 45.99% | 25,346 | 51.61% | 1,179 | 2.40% | -2,759 | -5.62% | 49,112 |
| Caroline | 5,095 | 32.26% | 10,283 | 65.11% | 416 | 2.63% | -5,188 | -32.85% | 15,794 |
| Carroll | 36,456 | 36.34% | 60,218 | 60.02% | 3,635 | 3.64% | -23,762 | -23.68% | 100,327 |
| Cecil | 16,809 | 35.42% | 29,439 | 62.03% | 1,214 | 2.56% | -12,630 | -26.61% | 47,462 |
| Charles | 62,171 | 69.47% | 25,579 | 28.58% | 1,748 | 1.95% | 36,592 | 40.89% | 89,498 |
| Dorchester | 6,857 | 42.92% | 8,764 | 54.85% | 356 | 2.23% | -1,907 | -11.94% | 15,977 |
| Frederick | 77,675 | 53.34% | 63,682 | 43.73% | 4,258 | 2.92% | 13,993 | 9.61% | 145,615 |
| Garrett | 3,281 | 21.02% | 12,002 | 76.88% | 328 | 2.10% | -8,721 | -55.86% | 15,611 |
| Harford | 63,095 | 42.58% | 80,930 | 54.61% | 4,161 | 2.81% | -17,835 | -12.04% | 148,186 |
| Howard | 129,433 | 70.70% | 48,390 | 26.43% | 5,240 | 2.86% | 81,043 | 44.27% | 183,063 |
| Kent | 5,329 | 49.37% | 5,195 | 48.13% | 270 | 2.50% | 134 | 1.24% | 10,794 |
| Montgomery | 419,569 | 78.61% | 101,222 | 18.96% | 12,952 | 2.43% | 318,347 | 59.64% | 533,743 |
| Prince George's | 379,208 | 89.26% | 37,090 | 8.73% | 8,557 | 2.01% | 342,118 | 80.53% | 424,855 |
| Queen Anne's | 10,709 | 35.35% | 18,741 | 61.87% | 840 | 2.77% | -8,032 | -26.52% | 30,290 |
| St. Mary's | 23,138 | 41.57% | 30,826 | 55.38% | 1,701 | 3.06% | -7,688 | -13.81% | 55,665 |
| Somerset | 4,241 | 41.80% | 5,739 | 56.56% | 167 | 1.65% | -1,498 | -14.76% | 10,147 |
| Talbot | 11,062 | 49.04% | 10,946 | 48.53% | 547 | 2.43% | 116 | 0.51% | 22,555 |
| Washington | 26,044 | 38.42% | 40,224 | 59.35% | 1,511 | 2.23% | -14,180 | -20.92% | 67,779 |
| Wicomico | 22,054 | 47.72% | 22,944 | 49.65% | 1,218 | 2.64% | -890 | -1.93% | 46,216 |
| Worcester | 12,560 | 39.63% | 18,571 | 58.60% | 560 | 1.77% | -6,011 | -18.97% | 31,691 |
| Totals | 1,985,023 | 65.36% | 976,414 | 32.15% | 75,594 | 2.49% | 1,008,609 | 33.21% | 3,037,031 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
Biden won 7 of the state's 8 congressional districts. [28]
| District | Biden | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 39% | 59% | Andy Harris |
| 2nd | 66% | 32% | Dutch Ruppersberger |
| 3rd | 69% | 29% | John Sarbanes |
| 4th | 79% | 19% | Anthony Brown |
| 5th | 69% | 30% | Steny Hoyer |
| 6th | 61% | 38% | David Trone |
| 7th | 78% | 20% | Kweisi Mfume |
| 8th | 69% | 29% | Jamie Raskin |
See also
Notes
- The other sixteen states were, Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Refused" with 3%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- "Other" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
- Includes "Refused"
- "Neither Democratic nor Republican; will vote third party" with 2%; "refused" with 1%
References
- "Official Turnout (By Party and County)" (PDF).
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "CQ Almanac Online Edition". library.cqpress.com. Retrieved January 31, 2021.
- "Maryland Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- "County winners, 1836-2016". Google Docs. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
- "Maryland postpones April 28 primary election over coronavirus". Politico. March 17, 2020.
- "Maryland Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Primary Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "HOWIE HAWKINS WINS MARYLAND GREEN PARTY PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY". Maryland Green Party. May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "2020 MGP Presidential Data" (PDF). May 31, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- "2020 Election Results". Maryland State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 10, 2020.
- https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020-2016-and-2012
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Maryland
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Maryland", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Maryland: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Maryland". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Maryland at Ballotpedia
