2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska

The 2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Nebraska voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Nebraska has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, two from the state at large, and one each from the three congressional districts.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska
November 3, 2020
Turnout76.33% (of registered voters) [1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 4 1
Popular vote 556,846 374,583
Percentage 58.51% 39.36%
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Nebraska
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Initiative 416
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Mayoral elections

Trump carried Nebraska by 19 points on Election Day, down from 25 points in 2016. Due to Nebraska's system of allocating electoral votes to winners of congressional districts, Biden was able to flip one electoral vote in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district--anchored by Omaha--by 6 points, while Trump received the state's other four electoral votes. Prior to the election, all news organizations declared Nebraska a safe red state, while most organizations viewed the 2nd district as either Lean Biden or a tossup, or in other words, a key battleground. This is the first election in which both Nebraska and Maine would officially split their electoral votes.

Biden won only the two most populous counties in the state - Douglas County, home to Omaha, by 11 points, approximately the same margin Lyndon B. Johnson won the county with in 1964 and the best result for Democrats since that election, and Lancaster County, home to the state's second largest city and state capital Lincoln, by just under 8 points, another 56-year high for Democrats. While he didn't win the state's third largest - Sarpy County, a growing suburban county to the south of Omaha, which in all presidential elections from 1968 to 2016 except 2008 had backed the Republican candidate by at least 21 points, he reduced Trump's winning margin to only 11 points and won 43 percent of the vote there, again a 56-year best for Democrats. Biden also received more than 40 percent of the vote in two counties in the northeastern corner of the state - Thurston County with a Native American majority, and Dakota County with a large Hispanic population.[4]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Nebraska came from Caucasians, who comprised 90% of the electorate, and specifically from Protestants with 70%. Post-election, many rural Nebraskans expressed worries about trade and the economy under a Biden presidency,[5] with 59% of voters stating they trusted Trump more to handle international trade.[6]

Nebraska was one of sixteen states where President Trump received a smaller percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 election.[lower-alpha 1]

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on May 12, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump was declared the winner in the Republican primary,[7] and thus received all of Nebraska's 36 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[8]

2020 Nebraska Republican Primary
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump 243,721 91.4 36
Bill Weld 22,934 8.6 0
Total 266,655 100% 36

Democratic primary

Joe Biden was declared the winner in the Democratic primary.[7]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Nebraska Democratic presidential primary[edit]
2020 Nebraska Democratic presidential primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[10]
Joe Biden 126,444 76.83% 29
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 23,214 14.10%
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 10,401 6.32%
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 4,523 2.75%
Total 164,582 100% 29

Libertarian primary

Jo Jorgensen was declared the winner of the Libertarian primary and went on to win the LP nomination. [11]

Nebraska Libertarian presidential primary, May 12, 2020 [12]
Candidate Votes Percentage
Jo Jorgensen 508 27.8%
Jacob Hornberger 444 24.3%
Adam Kokesh 263 14.4%
Lincoln Chafee (withdrawn) 254 13.9%
Max Abramson (withdrawn) 182 10.0%
Dan Behrman 177 9.7%
Total 1,828 100%

General election

At-large
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Safe R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[14] Safe R November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R November 3, 2020
Politico[16] Safe R November 3, 2020
RCP[17] Safe R November 3, 2020
Niskanen[18] Safe R November 3, 2020
CNN[19] Safe R November 3, 2020
The Economist[20] Safe R November 3, 2020
CBS News[21] Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin[22] Safe R November 3, 2020
ABC News[23] Solid R November 3, 2020
NPR[24] Likely R November 3, 2020
NBC News[25] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[26] Safe R November 3, 2020

1st district
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[27] Safe R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[28] Safe R November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] Safe R November 3, 2020
Politico[30] Safe R November 3, 2020
RCP[31] Safe R November 3, 2020
Niskanen[32] Safe R November 3, 2020
CNN[33] Safe R November 3, 2020
CBS News[34] Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin[35] Safe R November 3, 2020
ABC News[36] Solid R November 3, 2020
NPR[37] Lean R November 3, 2020
NBC News[38] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[39] Safe R November 3, 2020

2nd district
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[27] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[28] Tilt D (flip) November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
Politico[30] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
RCP[31] Tossup November 3, 2020
Niskanen[18] Tossup November 3, 2020
CNN[33] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
CBS News[34] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
270towin[35] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
ABC News[36] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
NPR[37] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
NBC News[38] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020
538[39] Lean D (flip) November 3, 2020

3rd district
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[27] Safe R November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[28] Safe R November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[29] Safe R November 3, 2020
Politico[30] Safe R November 3, 2020
RCP[31] Safe R November 3, 2020
Niskanen[32] Safe R November 3, 2020
CNN[33] Safe R November 3, 2020
CBS News[34] Likely R November 3, 2020
270towin[35] Safe R November 3, 2020
ABC News[36] Solid R November 3, 2020
NPR[37] Likely R November 3, 2020
NBC News[38] Safe R November 3, 2020
538[39] Safe R November 3, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
FiveThirtyEight until October 31, 2020 November 1, 2020 42.7% 52.5% 4.8% Trump +9.8
Statewide
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,742 (LV) ± 3.5% 56%[lower-alpha 4] 43% - - –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 2,423 (LV) – 53% 46% - - –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 799 (LV) – 57% 41% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 560 (LV) – 53% 47% - - 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 910 (LV) – 54% 44% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 267 (LV) – 56% 42% - - 2%
in Nebraska's 1st congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other Undecided
Strategies 360/Kate Bolz[upper-alpha 1] Jul 16–22, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 46% - - –
in Nebraska's 2nd congressional district
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other Undecided
University of Nevada Oct 30 – Nov 2, 2020 191 (LV) ± 7% 44% 50% 5% – –
Change Research Oct 29 – Nov 2, 2020 920 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 50% 2% 0%[lower-alpha 5] 0%
Emerson College Oct 29–30, 2020 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 48%[lower-alpha 6] 50% - 2%[lower-alpha 7] –
FM3 Research/Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC[upper-alpha 2] Oct 1–4, 2020 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 42% 53% - 5%[lower-alpha 8] –
Siena College/NYT Sep 25–27, 2020 420 (LV) ± 5.3% 41% 48% 4% 1%[lower-alpha 9] 6%[lower-alpha 10]
Global Strategy Group/House Majority PAC[upper-alpha 3] Sep 14–16, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 50% - 1%[lower-alpha 11] 3%[lower-alpha 12]
Global Strategy Group/House Majority PAC[upper-alpha 3] Jul 27–29, 2020 400 (LV) – 45% 51% - 2%[lower-alpha 13] 3%[lower-alpha 14]
GQR/Kara Eastman[upper-alpha 4] Jun 30 – Jul 5, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4.37% 44% 51% - – –
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department/Ally Mutnick[upper-alpha 5] May 7–10, 2020 448 (LV) ± 4.6% 41% 52% - – –

Electoral slates

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[40]

Donald Trump and
Mike Pence
Republican Party		 Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris
Democratic Party		 Jo Jorgensen and
Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Darlene Starman (At-large)
Steve Nelson (At-large)
George Olmer (District 1)
Mark Quandahl (District 2)
Teresa Ibach (District 3)		 Roger Wess (At-large)
Peg Lippert (At-large)
Larry Wright (District 1)
Precious McKesson (District 2)
Kathy Moore Jensen (District 3)		 Ben Backus (At-large)
Laura Ebke (At-large)
Trevor Reilly (District 1)
Margaret Austgen (District 2)
Patrick Birkel (District 3)

Results

As expected, President Trump easily carried the state as a whole. However, because Nebraska (along with Maine) allocate their remaining electoral votes by congressional district, Joe Biden was able to win an electoral vote from Nebraska's second district, which covers the increasingly liberal Omaha metro area. Barack Obama also was able to win that district in 2008 before it went back to the Republican column in 2012 and 2016.

2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska[41]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		556,846 58.51% -0.24%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris		 374,583 39.36% +5.66%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 20,283 2.13% -2.48%
Total votes 951,712 100.0%
2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		180,290 56.01% -0.17%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris		 132,261 41.09% +5.63%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 7,495 2.34% -2.63%
Total votes 320,046 100.0%
2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		176,468 52.30% +7.38%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence		 154,377 45.66% -1.50%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 6,909 2.04% -2.50%
Total votes 337,754 100.0%
2020 United States presidential election in Nebraska’s 3rd Congressional District
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		222,179 75.59% +1.67%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris		 65,854 22.41% +2.68%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 5,879 2.00% -2.32%
Total votes 293,912 100.0%

By congressional district
District Trump Biden Representative
1st 56.01% 41.09% Jeff Fortenberry
2nd 45.66% 52.30% Donald Bacon
3rd 75.59% 22.41% Adrian Smith

Notes
  1. The other fifteen states were Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. "Don't recall" and Would not vote with 0%
  6. With voters tho lean towards a given candidate
  7. "Someone else" with 2%
  8. "Undecided, will vote for another candidate or refused to answer" with 5%
  9. would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
  10. Includes "Refused"
  11. "Other candidate" with 1%
  12. Includes "Refused"
  13. "Other candidate" with 2%
  14. Includes "Refused"
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Bolz's campaign
  2. The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates
  3. Poll sponsored by the House Majority PAC which exclusively endorses Democratic candidates
  4. Poll sponsored by Eastman's campaign
  5. Poll sponsored by the DCCC

See also

References
  1. "Voter Turnout". Nebraska Secretary of State Election Results. November 6, 2020. Retrieved December 1, 2020.
  2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. Leip, Dave. "2020 Presidential General Election Results - Nebraska". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
  5. Searcey, Dionne (November 8, 2020). "A Nation Votes for Joe Biden, and a Red State Shrugs". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  6. "Nebraska Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  7. "Joe Biden picks up more delegates in Nebraska primary win". CBS News. May 12, 2020.
  8. "Nebraska Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved May 12, 2020.
  9. "Official Report of the Nebraska Board of State Canvassers: Primary Election, May 12, 2020" (PDF). Nebraska Board of State Canvassers. June 8, 2020. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  10. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2020.
  11. Winger, Richard (May 23, 2020). "Jo Jorgensen Wins Libertarian Presidential Nomination on Fourth Vote". Ballot Access Date. Retrieved May 24, 2020.
  12. https://electionresults.nebraska.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=PRS&map=CTY
  13. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  17. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  18. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  19. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  20. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  21. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  22. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  23. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  24. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  25. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  26. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  27. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  28. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  29. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  30. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  31. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  32. "Niskanen Center electoral college map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  33. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  34. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  35. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  36. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  37. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes".
  38. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  39. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  40. "Certificate of Ascertainment" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  41. "Official List of Candidates" (PDF). Nebraska Secretary of State. Retrieved September 17, 2020.

Further reading
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