2020 United States presidential election in Oregon

The 2020 United States presidential election in Oregon was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Oregon voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Oregon has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2] The state certified its election results on December 3.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Oregon
November 3, 2020
Turnout81.97% (of registered voters) 11.71 pp
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Independent Party
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 1,340,383 958,448
Percentage 56.45% 40.37%
County Results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Oregon
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City of Portland
Portland elections

Oregon continued its tradition of voting for the Democratic candidate, with Biden winning the state by 16.1%, an increase from Hillary Clinton's 11% win in 2016. No Republican presidential candidate has won the state since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Biden flipped two counties Trump won in 2016: Marion County--home to the state capital of Salem, and Deschutes County--anchored by Bend. It was also the first time a Democrat won Deschutes since 1992, and only the fourth since 1952. Biden also became the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson to win the presidency without winning Columbia County and Tillamook County.

As members of a West Coast state, voters in Oregon have a strong penchant for advancing the protection of civil liberties and individual freedoms, liberal values that have given Democrats a big edge in the state in recent years. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Oregon came from white liberals, with whites favoring him by 57%–40%. 33% of voters were secular and supported Biden by 80%.[4]

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on May 19, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump ran unopposed and was declared the winner in the Republican primary,[5] and thus received all of Oregon's 28 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[6]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Oregon Republican presidential primary[edit]
2020 Oregon Republican primary[7]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[8]
Donald Trump 363,785 93.70 28
write-ins 24,461 6.30 0
Total 388,246 100.00 28

Democratic primary

Joe Biden was declared the winner in the Democratic primary.[5]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Oregon Democratic presidential primary[edit]
2020 Oregon Democratic presidential primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[10]
Joe Biden 408,315 65.99 46
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 127,345 20.58 15
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 59,355 9.59
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 10,717 1.73
Write-ins 12,979 2.10
Total 618,711 100% 61

Independent Party of Oregon primary

The Independent Party of Oregon cross-nominated Joe Biden after an online nonpartisan blanket primary.[11]

Candidate Votes %
Joe Biden 1,661 46.7
Donald Trump 1,389 39.1
Bernie Sanders 1,227 34.5
Total 4,277 100.00
Candidate Votes %
Joe Biden 392 55.13
Donald Trump 280 39.38

Pacific Green Party primary

Howie Hawkins won the Oregon Green Party primary.

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[12] Solid D November 3, 2020
Inside Elections[13] Solid D November 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Safe D November 3, 2020
Politico[15] Likely D November 3, 2020
RCP[16] Lean D November 3, 2020
Niskanen[17] Safe D November 3, 2020
CNN[18] Solid D November 3, 2020
The Economist[19] Safe D November 3, 2020
CBS News[20] Likely D November 3, 2020
270towin[21] Safe D November 3, 2020
ABC News[22] Solid D November 3, 2020
NPR[23] Likely D November 3, 2020
NBC News[24] Likely D November 3, 2020
538[25] Solid D November 3, 2020

Graphical summary

Polls

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
270 to Win September 26 – October 17, 2020 October 20, 2020 58.0% 38.5% 3.5% Biden +19.5
FiveThirtyEight until October 27, 2020 October 28, 2020 57.5% 38.0% 4.5% Biden +19.5
Average 57.8% 38.3% 3.9% Biden +19.5

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Howie
Hawkins
Pacific Green		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 3,543 (LV) ± 2.5% 39%[lower-alpha 3] 59% - - – –
Swayable Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 324 (LV) ± 7.3% 37% 60% 1% 1% – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 5,422 (LV) – 38% 61% - - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,109 (LV) – 38% 61% - - – 2%
Civiqs/Daily Kos Sep 26–29, 2020 944 (LV) ± 3.5% 39% 56% - - 3%[lower-alpha 4] 2%
DHM Research Sep 3–8, 2020 502 (LV) ± 4% 39% 51% - - 6%[lower-alpha 5] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,648 (LV) – 38% 60% - - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,890 (LV) – 38% 61% - - – 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 872 (LV) – 39% 59% - - – 2%

Results
2020 United States presidential election in Oregon[26]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		1,340,383 56.45% +6.38%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence		 958,448 40.37% +1.28%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 41,582 1.75% -2.96%
Pacific Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker		 11,831 0.50% -2.00%
Progressive Dario Hunter
Dawn Neptune Adams		 4,988 0.21% N/A
Write-in 17,089 0.72% N/A
Total votes 2,374,321

By congressional district

Biden won 4 out of 5 congressional districts in Oregon.

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 34.1% 63.3% Suzanne Bonamici
2nd 55.6% 42.1% Cliff Bentz
3rd 23.5% 74.3% Earl Blumenauer
4th 46.7% 50.7% Peter DeFazio
5th 43.9% 53.6% Kurt Schrader

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Notes
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. "Someone else" with 3%
  5. "Someone else" with 6%

See also

References
  1. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Oregon secretary of state certifies election results". kgw.com. Retrieved December 5, 2020.
  4. "Oregon Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  5. "Biden, Trump win presidential primaries in Oregon". Associated Press. KPTV. May 19, 2020.
  6. "Oregon Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved May 19, 2020.
  7. "Oregon Secretary of State". results.oregonvotes.gov. Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  8. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  9. "May 19, 2020, Primary Election Abstract of Votes" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
  10. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved May 20, 2020.
  11. "RESULTS AND DATA | 2020 OREGON PRIMARY | Independent Party". Pers. Retrieved July 10, 2020.
  12. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  13. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  14. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  15. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  16. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  17. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  18. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  19. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  20. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  21. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  22. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  23. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  24. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  25. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  26. "November 2020 General Election Results" (PDF). Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
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