2020 United States presidential election in Delaware

The 2020 United States presidential election in Delaware was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Delaware voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump from Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence from Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Delaware has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Delaware
November 3, 2020
Turnout68.86%[1] 3.51 pp
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 296,268 200,603
Percentage 58.74% 39.77%
County results
President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

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Mayoral elections

Delaware is the home state of Biden, who represented the state in the U.S. Senate for 36 years from 1973 to 2009. Biden defeated Trump in the state by a margin of 19%, a significant improvement over Hillary Clinton's 11% margin over Trump in 2016. Biden flipped the swing county of Kent, while Sussex County, which last voted Democratic when Bill Clinton carried it in 1996, stayed Republican. Delaware's remaining county, New Castle—home to Biden's hometown of Wilmington and part of both the Northeast megalopolis and the Philadelphia metropolitan area, containing 55% of the state's population—stayed Democratic, having last voted Republican when George H. W. Bush carried it in 1988. Biden's margin in New Castle County would have been more than enough to carry the state; he carried his home county by over 106,000 votes, far exceeding his statewide margin of 96,000 votes.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in his home state came from African-Americans with 91%; and Caucasians with 50%, including those with a college degree with 54%. 58% of Delawarean voters had a favorable opinion of him.[4] Biden won overwhelmingly in his hometown of Wilmington, earning 26,698 votes to Trump's 3,580.[5]

Delaware was one of sixteen states where President Trump received less percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 election.[lower-alpha 1] With Biden's victory nationwide, he became the first person elected President of the United States from Delaware.

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 24, they were moved to June 2 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic. On May 7, the primary elections were again postponed to July 7.[6][7] By that time, President Donald Trump of the Republican Party and former Vice President Joe Biden of the Democratic Party had already clinched enough delegates to become the presumptive nominees of their respective parties. This was Biden's third presidential attempt, as he had previously campaigned in the 1988 and 2008 Democratic presidential primaries but failed to secure the nomination both times.

Republican primary

Incumbent President Donald Trump was essentially uncontested in the Republican primary.[8] The state has 16 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[9]

However, Trump was not unopposed: Rocky De La Fuente took 12% of the vote, with Trump polling 88%.[10]

2020 Delaware Republican presidential primary[11]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[12]
Donald Trump 28,876 88.05% 16
Rocky De La Fuente 3,920 11.95%
Total 32,796 100% 16

Democratic primary
This section is an excerpt from 2020 Delaware Democratic presidential primary § Results[edit]

2020 Delaware Democratic presidential primary[13]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[14]
Joe Biden 81,954 89.39% 21
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 6,878 7.50%
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) 2,850 3.11%
Total 91,682 100% 21

General election

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Safe D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[16] Safe D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[18] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[19] Safe D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[20] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[21] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[22] Safe D September 2, 2020
CBS News[23] Likely D August 16, 2020
270towin[24] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[25] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[26] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[27] Safe D August 6, 2020
538[28] Safe D September 9, 2020

Polling
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
270 to Win September 1–30, 2020 October 28, 2020 57.5% 35.0% 7.5% Biden +22.5
FiveThirtyEight until October 27, 2020 October 28, 2020 57.7% 35.0% 7.3% Biden +22.7
Average 57.6% 35.0% 7.4% Biden +22.6
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Howie
Hawkins
Green		 Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 656 (LV) ± 6% 38%[lower-alpha 4] 60% - - –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,323 (LV) – 37% 62% - - –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 395 (LV) – 37% 61% - - 2%
University of Delaware Sep 21–27, 2020 847 (LV) – 33% 54% 2% 1% 10%[lower-alpha 5]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 348 (LV) – 32% 67% - - 1%
PPP Aug 21–22, 2020 710 (V) ± 3.7% 37% 58% - - 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 453 (LV) – 31% 67% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 232 (LV) – 34% 64% - - 2%
Gonzales Research Jan 16–21, 2020 410 (LV) ± 5.0% 40% 56% - - 4%
Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Michael
Bloomberg (D)		 Undecided
Gonzales Research Jan 16–21, 2020 410 (LV) ± 5.0% 47% 48% 5%
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Undecided
Gonzales Research Jan 16–21, 2020 410 (LV) ± 5.0% 45% 50% 5%
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Undecided
Gonzales Research Jan 16–21, 2020 410 (LV) ± 5.0% 46% 47% 7%
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 3]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Elizabeth
Warren (D)		 Undecided
Gonzales Research Jan 16–21, 2020 410 (LV) ± 5.0% 46% 49% 5%

Results
2020 United States presidential election in Delaware[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris 		296,268 58.74% +5.65%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence		 200,603 39.77% -1.95%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 5,000 0.99% -2.33%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker		 2,139 0.42% -0.95%
Write-in 336[29] 0.07% -0.43%
Total votes 504,346 100.00%

Results by county
CountyBiden#Biden%Trump#Trump%Jorgensen#Jorgensen%Hawkins#Hawkins%Total
Kent44,55251.2%41,00947.1%1,0441.2%1,0421.2%87,025
New Castle195,03467.8%88,36430.7%2,9531%1,2820.5%287,633
Sussex56,68243.8%71,23055%1,0030.8%4370.3%129,352

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Turnout

According to the Delaware's Elections website, voter turnout was 71.88% with 531,599 ballots cast out of 739,570 registered voters.[1]

Notes
  1. The other fifteen states were Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. "None/other/undecided" with 10%

See also

References
  1. "2020 General Election Report". elections.delaware.gov/. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. "Delaware Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. "Delaware Election Results". Delaware Department of Elections. Retrieved November 16, 2020.
  6. "Delaware primary elections moved to July 7 due to COVID-19 pandemic". WPVI-TV. May 7, 2020.
  7. "Delaware presidential primary delayed because of coronavirus". Associated Press. March 24, 2020.
  8. "Biden, Trump easily win in Delaware primary". Associated Press. Newark Post. July 7, 2020.
  9. "Delaware Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
  10. https://elections.delaware.gov/results/html/index.shtml?electionId=PP2020#electionReport1
  11. "Delaware Election Results". Department of Elections. Delaware Department of Elections. Retrieved July 8, 2020.
  12. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved July 8, 2020.
  13. "Delaware Election Results". Department of Elections. Delaware Department of Elections. Retrieved July 8, 2020.
  14. "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved July 8, 2020.
  15. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  17. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  18. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  19. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  20. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  21. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  22. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  23. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  24. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  25. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  26. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  27. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  28. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  29. "Write-in votes" (PDF). elections.delaware.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.

Further reading
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