2020 United States presidential election in Virginia
The 2020 United States presidential election in Virginia was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Virginia voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
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| Turnout | 74.64%  | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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 County and Independent City Results
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| Elections in Virginia |
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Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations considered this a state Biden would win, or a likely blue state. On the day of the election, Biden won Virginia with 54.11% of the vote, and by a margin of 10.11%, the best performance for a Democratic presidential candidate since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944.[3] Biden became the first Democratic nominee to win Chesterfield County and Lynchburg City since 1948, Virginia Beach City since 1964, James City County since 1968, and Stafford County since 1976.[4] He also flipped Chesapeake City back to the Democratic Party. Trump flipped no counties or independent cities in the state. Nevertheless, Biden became the very first Democrat to win the election without Covington City, Nelson and Caroline County, as well as the first since 1992 to win without Buckingham County, and the first since 1960 to win without Westmoreland County, a notable bellwether.
The diversification of Northern Virginia as well as sliding suburban support for Republicans allowed Biden to win the once-key battleground state without actively campaigning in Virginia. Biden won Loudoun County, Prince William County, Fairfax County, and Henrico County with 61.9%, 62.8%, 69.9%, and 63.7%, respectively; all four were former suburban bastions of the Republican Party in Virginia, the first three in Northern Virginia and Henrico outside Richmond. All four had voted Republican in every election from 1968 through 2000. In Arlington County, a closer DC-area suburban county that had turned Democratic several decades earlier, Biden won with 80.6% of the vote, becoming the first nominee of either party in at least a century to crack 80% there. Biden's combined margin in Fairfax, Prince William, Loudoun, and Arlington Counties was greater than his statewide margin of victory. Crucially for his performance in Northern Virginia, Biden carried government workers by 18%.[5]
This election, Virginia weighed in as 5.7% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Although Virginia was considered a reliable Republican-leaning state at the presidential level from 1952 to 2004, it has not voted Republican in a presidential election since 2004, and it has not elected a Republican to any statewide office since 2009, largely due to migration into counties in Northern Virginia close to Washington, D.C., which has tilted these densely populated areas towards the Democrats. This was the first election since 1988 that a presidential candidate won Virginia by double digits (George H. W. Bush having carried the Old Dominion by 20.5% in his first run); and the first election in which any presidential candidate received over 2 million votes in Virginia.
As Georgia tilted towards Biden, this was also the first election in which fellow Southern states Georgia and Virginia voted for the same candidate since 2004, when both solidly backed George W. Bush. Conversely, Virginia and Florida continued drifting apart after a more-than-100-year run (from 1880 through 2012) of voting alike in every election save 1976 and 1996, as Florida reprised its support for Trump.
Virginia was one of sixteen states where President Trump received less percentage of the vote than he did in the 2016 election.[lower-alpha 1]
Primary elections
Canceled Republican primary
The Virginia Republican Party is one of several state GOP parties that have officially canceled their respective primaries and caucuses.[6] Donald Trump's re-election campaign and GOP officials have cited the fact that Republicans canceled several state primaries when George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush sought a second term in 1992 and 2004, respectively; and Democrats scrapped some of their primaries when Bill Clinton and Barack Obama were seeking reelection in 1996 and 2012, respectively.[7][8] At the Virginia State Republican Convention, originally scheduled for May 2020 but postponed to August 15, 2020, the state party will formally bind all 48 of its national pledged delegates to Trump.[6][9][10]
Democratic primary
The Virginia Democratic primary took place on March 3, 2020, as part of the "Super Tuesday" suite of elections.
Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders were among the major declared candidates.[11]
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- Biden—70–80%
- Biden—60–70%
- Biden—50–60%
- Biden—40–50%
- Biden—30–40%
- Sanders—30–40%
- Sanders—40–50%
- Biden—50–60%
- Biden—40–50%
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[14] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 705,501 | 53.30 | 67 |
| Bernie Sanders | 306,388 | 23.15 | 31 |
| Elizabeth Warren | 142,546 | 10.77 | 1 |
| Michael Bloomberg | 128,030 | 9.67 | 0 |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 11,288 | 0.85 | 0 |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) | 11,199 | 0.85 | 0 |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) | 8,414 | 0.64 | 0 |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn†) | 3,361 | 0.25 | 0 |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 1,910 | 0.14 | 0 |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) | 1,472 | 0.11 | 0 |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn†) | 1,437 | 0.11 | 0 |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 902 | 0.07 | 0 |
| Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 691 | 0.05 | 0 |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn†) | 370 | 0.03 | 0 |
| Write-in votes | 184 | 0.01 | 0 |
| Total | 1,323,693 | 100% | 99 |
Green primary
The Green Party of Virginia conducted an online ranked choice primary from April 20 to April 26, 2020.[15]
| 2020 Green Party of Virginia primary[15] | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | |||||||||||
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||||||||
| Howie Hawkins | 42 | 62.7% | 42 | 62.7% | 43 | 64.2% | 44 | 65.7% | |||||||
| Dario Hunter | 17 | 25.4% | 18 | 26.9% | 21 | 31.3% | 23 | 34.3% | |||||||
| Kent Mesplay | 3 | 4.5% | 3 | 4.5% | 3 | 4.5% | Eliminated | ||||||||
| Sedinam Moyowasiza-Curry | 2 | 3.0% | 2 | 3.0% | Eliminated | ||||||||||
| Jill Stein (write-in) | 2 | 3.0% | Eliminated | ||||||||||||
| Jesse Ventura (write-in) | 1 | 1.5% | Eliminated | ||||||||||||
| Total votes | 67 | 100.0% | |||||||||||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[16] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[17] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[18] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| Politico[19] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| RCP[20] | Lean D | November 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[21] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| CNN[22] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[23] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| CBS News[24] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 270towin[25] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| ABC News[26] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| NPR[27] | Likely D | September 16, 2020 |
| NBC News[28] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[29] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
Polling
- Graphical summary
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 3] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win | September 30 – October 27, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 53.3% | 40.5% | 6.2% | Biden +12.8 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until October 27, 2020 | October 28, 2020 | 52.9% | 41.1% | 6.0% | Biden +11.8 |
| Average | 53.1% | 40.8% | 6.1% | Biden +12.3 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 4] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 4,550 (LV) | ± 2% | 41%[lower-alpha 5] | 57% | - | - | – | – |
| Swayable | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 467 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 39% | 59% | 2% | 1% | – | – |
| Data for Progress | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 690 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 43% | 54% | 1% | 0% | 1%[lower-alpha 6] | – |
| Roanoke College | Oct 23–29, 2020 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 53% | 2% | - | 1% | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 7,663 (LV) | – | 43% | 55% | - | - | – | – |
| Christopher Newport University | Oct 15–27, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 53% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 7] | 4% |
| Swayable | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 351 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 44% | 55% | 1% | - | – | – |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | Oct 13–22, 2020 | 709 (LV) | ± 4.93% | 39% | 51% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 8] | 8%[lower-alpha 9] |
| Schar School/Washington Post | Oct 13–19, 2020 | 908 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 52% | 3% | - | 0%[lower-alpha 10] | 4% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos | Oct 11–14, 2020 | 1,231 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 42% | 55% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 11] | 1% |
| Reconnect Research/Roanoke College | Sep 30 – Oct 12, 2020 | 602 (LV) | – | 39%[lower-alpha 12] | 54% | 4% | - | - | 4% |
| Survey Monkey/Tableau | Sep 15 – Oct 12, 2020 | 4,248 (LV) | – | 43% | 55% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[upper-alpha 1] | Oct 9–11, 2020 | 607 (LV) | – | 42% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,882 (LV) | – | 42% | 56% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Cygnal/Gade for Virginia[upper-alpha 1] | Sep 22–25, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 41% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Christopher Newport University | Sep 9–21, 2020 | 796 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 48% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 13] | 7% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | Aug 28 – Sep 7, 2020 | 693 (LV) | ± 6.22% | 39% | 52% | - | - | 1%[lower-alpha 14] | 8%[lower-alpha 15] |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 2,626 (LV) | – | 41% | 57% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Roanoke College | Aug 9–22, 2020 | 566 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 53% | - | - | 3%[lower-alpha 16] | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 3,178 (LV) | – | 43% | 55% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Morning Consult | Jul 17–26, 2020 | 1,156 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 41% | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | Jul 11–19, 2020 | 725 (LV) | ± 6.2% | 39% | 50% | - | - | 1% | 10% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 1,619 (LV) | – | 42% | 57% | - | - | – | 1% |
| Morning Consult | May 17–26, 2020 | 1,148 (LV) | – | 42%[lower-alpha 17] | 52% | - | - | – | – |
| Roanoke College | May 3–16, 2020 | 563 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 51% | - | - | – | – |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | Mar 25 – Apr 8, 2020 | 812 (A) | ± 4.5% | 41% | 51% | - | - | – | 8% |
| Hampton University | Feb 25–28, 2020 | 768 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 45% | - | - | – | – |
| Roanoke College | Feb 9–18, 2020 | 520 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | 48% | - | - | – | – |
| Mason-Dixon | Dec 12–16, 2019 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 49% | - | - | – | 6% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | Dec 2–13, 2019 | 728 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 46% | 49% | - | - | – | 5%[lower-alpha 18] |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | Sep 23 – Oct 4, 2019 | 645 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 44% | 52% | - | - | – | 4%[lower-alpha 18] |
| University of Mary Washington/Research America | Sep 3–15, 2019 | 1,009 (A) | ± 3.1% | 37% | 55% | - | - | 1% | 4% |
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with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
|
Hypothetical polling | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat
with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent
with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat
|
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
2,413,568 | 54.11% | +4.38% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
1,962,430 | 44.00% | -0.41% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
64,761 | 1.45% | -1.52% | |
| Write-in | 19,765 | 0.44 | -0.41% | ||
| Total votes | 4,460,524 | 100.00% | |||
Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Chesapeake (independent city)
- Chesterfield (no municipalities)
- Lynchburg (independent city)
- James City (no municipalities)
- Stafford (no municipalities)
- Virginia Beach (independent city)
By congressional district
Biden won 7 out of Virginia’s 11 congressional districts
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 51% | 47% | Rob Wittman |
| 2nd | 47% | 52% | Elaine Luria |
| 3rd | 31% | 67% | Robert C. Scott |
| 4th | 37% | 62% | Donald McEachin |
| 5th | 54% | 45% | Denver Riggleman |
| Bob Good | |||
| 6th | 60% | 39% | Ben Cline |
| 7th | 49% | 50% | Abigail Spanberger |
| 8th | 21% | 78% | Don Beyer |
| 9th | 70% | 28% | Morgan Griffith |
| 10th | 40% | 59% | Jennifer Wexton |
| 11th | 28% | 70% | Gerry Connolly |
See also
Notes
- The other fifteen states were Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Rhode Island, Tennessee and Texas.
- The "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary" website published by the Virginia Department of Elections does not include the write-in votes.[13] This article includes them.
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
- "Someone else" with 2%
- "Third party candidate" with 2%
- Includes "Refused"
- "Other", "None of these" and would not vote with 0%
- "Someone else" with 3%
- With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- "Another candidate" with 2%
- "Third party candidate" with 1%
- Includes "Refused"
- "Some other candidate" with 3%
- Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- Includes "refused"
- "Would vote for a third party candidate" with 6%
- "It is time to have someone else in office" as opposed to "Trump should be re-elected" with 59%
- "Refused" with 0%
- Partisan clients
- Poll conducted by Daniel Gade's campaign
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "Without Northern Virginia, Trump would have won the state". Inside Nova. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
- "Chesterfield and Lynchburg hadn't backed a Democrat for president since 1948. Biden changed that". Virginia Mercury. November 5, 2020. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
- "Virginia Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
- "Virginia Republicans Will Hold 2020 Presidential Preference Vote at State Convention". Frontloading. September 18, 2019. Retrieved September 19, 2019.
- Karni, Annie (September 6, 2019). "GOP plans to drop presidential primaries in 4 states to impede Trump challengers". Boston Globe. MSN. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
- Steakin, Will; Karson, Kendall (September 6, 2019). "GOP considers canceling at least 3 GOP primaries and caucuses, Trump challengers outraged". ABC News. Retrieved September 7, 2019.
- "Virginia Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
- Mattingly, Justin (June 30, 2020). "Republican Party of Virginia reschedules 'unassembled' convention for August". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved July 10, 2020.
- Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
- "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary". Virginia.gov. Virginia Department of Elections. Archived from the original on March 27, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
- "2020 March Democratic Presidential Primary". Virginia Department of Elections. Retrieved March 11, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Virginia Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 4, 2020.
- Jonah Thomas (May 12, 2020). "2020 GPVA Presidential Primary Results".
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". ABC News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Landscape tightens some, but Biden is still ahead". NPR. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
- "Biden continues to lead in our latest battleground map". NBC News. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
- "Biden is very likely to win Virginia". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved January 15, 2021.
- "2020 November General". results.elections.virginia.gov. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Virginia", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Virginia: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Virginia". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Virginia at Ballotpedia
