2020 United States presidential election in New York
The 2020 United States presidential election in New York was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New York voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris.[2] New York has 29 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3] Trump announced that Florida would be his home state for this election, rather than New York as it had been previously.[4] This was the first presidential election in New York to allow no-excuse absentee voting.[5]
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| Elections in New York State |
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New York remained a blue state, with Biden winning with 60.86% of the vote, while Trump received 37.75% of the vote, a 23.11% Democratic victory margin. Trump won more individual counties, taking 41 counties statewide to Biden's 21. Both Biden and Trump improved from their 2016 counterparts, with Biden receiving a larger vote share and margin of victory than Hillary Clinton in 2016, while Trump earned a slightly higher percentage of the vote despite losing the state by a larger margin, due to fewer voters choosing third-party candidates.
Biden largely improved over Clinton's margins in the more competitive Upstate region, whereas Trump's improvements largely came from the New York City metropolitan area. Biden flipped Broome, Essex, Rensselaer and Saratoga counties from the previous election. Notably, an additional six counties (Cortland, Ontario, Franklin, Orange, Suffolk, and Warren) voted for Trump by a narrow margin of fewer than 500 votes each. Biden is the first Democrat since 1976 to win the presidency without Franklin and Cortland Counties, as well as the first since 1992 without Suffolk County. Biden won 5.2 million votes, the most received by a Democratic presidential candidate in the state's history.
Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, garnering 91% of blacks; 70% of Latinos, including 75% of Latinos of Puerto Rican heritage; 58% of Jewish voters; and 56% of union households.[6] Biden carried four of the five boroughs of New York City, only losing Staten Island.
Primary elections
The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020. On March 28, New York State elections officials moved the primary date to June 23 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[7]
Canceled Republican primary
On March 3, 2020, the New York Republican Party became one of several state GOP parties to officially cancel their respective primaries and caucuses. Donald Trump was the only Republican candidate to submit the required number of names of his 162 total delegates, both the 94 primary ones and the alternates. Among Trump's major challengers, Bill Weld only submitted about half of his required delegates, and neither Rocky De La Fuente nor Joe Walsh sent in any names at all. With the cancellation, Trump automatically gets to send his 94 New York pledged delegates to the national convention.[8][9]
Democratic primary
On April 27, 2020, New York State elections officials had decided to cancel the state's Democratic primary altogether, citing the fact that former Vice President Joe Biden was the only major candidate left in the race after all the others had suspended their campaigns, and canceling it would save the state millions of dollars from printing the extra sheet on the ballot.[10] However, on May 5, a federal judge ruled that the Democratic primary must proceed on June 23 after a suit made by former presidential primary candidate Andrew Yang.[11]
Among the other major candidates were entrepreneur Andrew Yang, Kirsten Gillibrand, one of New York's two current senators, and Bill de Blasio, the mayor of New York City. However, on August 29, 2019, Gillibrand dropped out of the race. Bill de Blasio as well dropped out on September 20, 2019, after failing to qualify for the 4th Democratic debate.
- Results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[13] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 1,136,679 | 64.62% | 231 |
| Bernie Sanders (suspended) | 285,908 | 16.25% | 43 |
| Blank | 135,486 | 7.70% | |
| Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) | 82,917 | 4.71% | |
| Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn) | 39,433 | 2.24% | |
| Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) | 22,927 | 1.30% | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 22,686 | 1.29% | |
| Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn) | 11,028 | 0.63% | |
| Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) | 9,083 | 0.52% | |
| Void | 4,621 | 0.26% | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 3,040 | 0.17% | |
| Michael Bennet (withdrawn) | 2,932 | 0.17% | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn) | 2,299 | 0.13% | |
| Total | 1,759,039 | 100% | 274 |
Conservative
The Conservative Party of New York State cross-endorsed the Republican ticket, nominating Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president.[14]
Working Families
The Working Families Party cross-endorsed the Democratic ticket, nominating Joe Biden for president and Kamala Harris for vice president.[15] Several prominent Democrats, including Senators Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer encouraged voting for Biden and Harris on the WFP line, in order for the party to keep ballot access.[16]
Green
The Green Party of New York nominated the national Green Party ticket; Howie Hawkins for president and Angela Nicole Walker for vice president.
Libertarian
The Libertarian Party of New York nominated the national Libertarian Party ticket; Jo Jorgensen for president and Spike Cohen for vice president.
Independence
The Independence Party of New York nominated independent candidates Brock Pierce for president and Karla Ballard for vice president.[17]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[18] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[19] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| Politico[21] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| RCP[22] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[23] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| CNN[24] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[25] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| CBS News[26] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 270towin[27] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| ABC News[28] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| NPR[29] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[30] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[31] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [lower-alpha 1] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Clear Politics | April 30 – September 29, 2020 | October 2, 2020 | 59.7% | 31.0% | 9.3% | Biden +28.7 |
| FiveThirtyEight | until October 24, 2020 | October 25, 2020 | 62.2% | 31.3% | 6.5% | Biden +30.9 |
| Average | 61.0% | 31.2% | 7.8% | Biden +29.8 | ||
Polls
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[lower-alpha 2] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 6,548 (LV) | ± 2% | 35%[lower-alpha 3] | 63% | – | – | – | – |
| Research Co. | Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 34% | 64% | - | - | 2%[lower-alpha 4] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 10,220 (LV) | – | 34% | 63% | - | - | – | – |
| Swayable | Oct 23–26, 2020 | 495 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 33% | 65% | 1% | 1% | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 10,007 (LV) | – | 34% | 64% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Siena College | Sep 27–29, 2020 | 504 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 29% | 61% | 0% | 1% | 2%[lower-alpha 5] | 7% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 9,969 (LV) | – | 34% | 64% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling | Aug 20–22, 2020 | 1,029 (V) | ± 3.1% | 32% | 63% | - | - | – | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 10,280 (LV) | – | 34% | 63% | - | - | – | 2% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 4,555 (LV) | – | 33% | 65% | - | - | – | 2% |
| Siena College | Jun 23–25, 2020 | 806 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 32% | 57% | - | - | – | 10% |
| Siena College | May 17–21, 2020 | 767 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 32% | 57% | - | - | – | 11% |
| Quinnipiac University | Apr 30 – May 4, 2020 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 32% | 55% | - | - | 5%[lower-alpha 6] | 8% |
| Siena College | Apr 19–23, 2020 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 29% | 65% | - | - | – | 6% |
| Siena College | Mar 22–26, 2020 | 566 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 33% | 58% | - | - | – | 10% |
| Siena College | Feb 16–20, 2020 | 658 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 55% | - | - | – | 5% |
Former candidates | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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with Donald Trump and Michael Bloomberg
with Donald Trump and Pete Buttigieg
with Donald Trump and Bill de Blasio
with Donald Trump and Kirsten Gillibrand
with Donald Trump and Amy Klobuchar
with Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders
with Donald Trump and Elizabeth Warren
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Electoral slates
These electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[32]
| Joe Biden and Kamala Harris Democratic Party Working Families Party |
Donald Trump and Mike Pence Republican Party Conservative Party |
Jo Jorgensen and Spike Cohen Libertarian Party |
Howie Hawkins and Angela Walker Green Party |
Brock Pierce and Karla Ballard Independence Party |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June O'Neill Xiao Wang Katherine M. Sheehan Thomas J. Garry Lovely Warren Gary S. LaBarbera Stuart H. Applebaum Mary Sullivan George K. Gresham Randi Weingarten Mario F. Cilento Alphonso David Hazel Nell Dukes Christine Quinn Byron Brown Corey Johnson Scott Stringer Andrea Stewart-Cousins Carl Heastie Jay Jacobs Letitia James Thomas DiNapoli Kathy Hochul Andrew Cuomo Hillary Clinton Bill Clinton Rubén Díaz Jr. Judith Hunter Anastasia Somoza |
Brendan Lantry Jesus Garcia Susan McNeil Joseph Cairo William Napier Karl Simmeth Christine Benedict Joann Ariola Carl Zeilman Jennifer Saul Rich Charlie Joyce Adrian Anderson Rob Ortt Will Barclay John Burnett Chloe Sun Elie Hirschfeld Yechezkel Moskowitz Shaun Marie Levine Christopher Kendall Francis Vella-Marrone Andrea Catsimatidis John Gereau Rodney Strange Todd Rouse Trisha Turner Robert Keis Nick Langworthy Tom Dadey |
Daniel P. Donnelly Duane J. Whitmer Robert M. Arrigo Mark N. Axinn Erin M. Becker Rachel E. Becker Richard Bell Kari R. Bittner Mark S. Braiman Jay A. Carr Tucker C. Coburn Anthony D'Orazio Kevin A. Wilson Milva E. Dordal Pietro S. Geraci Paul M. Grindle Mark E. Glogowski Shawn Hannon Andrew M. Kolstee Peyton D. Kunselman Brandon G. Lyon Leonard E. Morlock Lora L. Newell Gary Popkin Thomas D. Quiter Ilya Schwartzburg Paul C. Sechrist Larry Sharpe William C. Anderson |
Stephen Bloom Peter A. Lavenia Cassandra J. Lems Paul W. Gilman Darin Robbins Barbara A. Kidney Joseph R. Naham Michael E. O'Neil Eric M. Jones Carol S. Przybylak Tatianna M. Moragne James R. Brown III James McCabe Candace Carponter Michael D. Emperor Jennifer R. White Allan D. Hunter Mary B. House Serena L. Seals David Sutliff-Atias Craig A. Seeman Daneilla Liebling Adrienne R. Craig-Williams Christopher J. Archer Claudia Flanagan Gil Obler Debra A. Rosario Gloria Mattera David L. Giannascoli |
Kenneth Bayne Scott R. Major Robert G. Pilnick Barbara Pilnick Gary P. Newman Arthur Abbate Joseph W. Fuller Maryann H. Major Andrew J. Bogardt Anna C. Bogardt Robert J. Bogardt Trisha L. Sterling Thomas Hatfield Thomas A. Connolly Atef S. Zeina Lee Kolesnikoff Joseph L. Baruth Paul E. Caputo Edward G. Miller Thomas S. Connolly Dennis R. Zack Michael Amo Richard S. Bellando Maryellen Bellando William Bogardt Teresa Bogardt Frank M. MacKay Kristin A. MacKay Carolyn P. Major |
Results
New York's inexperience processing a large number of mail ballots, having only legalized no-excuse absentee voting in 2019, led to ballots taking weeks to count.[33][5] Over two million ballots and over 20% of the votes were cast by mail.[34] New York failed to meet its November 28 deadline to certify the election, with hundreds of thousands of votes still uncounted.[35] State Senator Michael Gianaris commented, "if we were a swing state in this presidential election, this would be a national scandal".[36]
The delay in the counting of mail-in ballots wrongly made it seem at first that Biden had underperformed Hillary Clinton in 2016, a phenomenon some commentators called a "red mirage."[37] However, when all votes were counted, Biden exceeded Clinton's margin over Trump by about 0.6 percentage points. This was due to improved performance in Upstate New York and on Long Island. Meanwhile, four of New York City's five boroughs shifted towards Trump, Staten Island being the exception.
Donald Trump is the first Republican to receive 3 million or more raw votes in New York since George H. W. Bush in 1988. Biden flipped 4 counties that Trump won in 2016: Broome, Essex, Rensselaer, and Saratoga counties.[38][39] Biden also came very close to flipping an additional six counties, as he lost Cortland County by 420 votes, Franklin County by 415 votes, Ontario County by 14 votes, Orange County by 312 votes, Suffolk County by 232 votes, and Warren County by just 57 votes.[40] Trump's narrow victories in these counties meant that they were decided by a combined total of just 1450 votes out of more than 1 million votes cast across all five counties. According to exit polls by CNN, Biden won 96% of Democrats, who were 41% of the electorate, 59% of Independents, who made up 32% of voters, and 21% of Republicans, who made up 27% of the vote.[41]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
4,844,975 | 56.37 | -0.35% | |
| Working Families | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
386,010 | 4.49 | +2.68% | |
| Total | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
5,230,985 | 60.86 | +1.85% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
2,949,141 | 34.31 | +1.58% | |
| Conservative | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
295,657 | 3.44 | -0.35% | |
| Total | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
3,244,798 | 37.75 | +1.23% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
60,234 | 0.70 | -0.04% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
32,753 | 0.38 | -1.02% | |
| Independence | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
22,587 | 0.26 | -1.28% | |
| Write-in | 3,469 | 0.04 | -0.75% | ||
| Total votes | 8,594,826 | 100.00% | +11.31% | ||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Broome (largest municipality: Binghamton)
- Essex (largest municipality: North Elba)
- Rensselaer (largest municipality: Troy)
- Saratoga (largest municipality: Saratoga Springs)
See also
Notes
- Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- "Someone else" with 2%
- Pierce (I) with 2%, "someone else" and would not vote with 0%
- "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%
References
- Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- "New York Election Results". New York Times. Retrieved November 10, 2020.
- "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- Choi, Matthew (October 31, 2019). "Trump, a symbol of New York, is officially a Floridian now". Politico. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
- Ferré-Sadurní, Luis (August 20, 2020). "New York Will Allow Voters to Cast Mail-In Ballots". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
- "New York Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 13, 2020.
- "New York presidential primary postponed amid record numbers of coronavirus cases". ABC News. March 28, 2020.
- "New York might cancel Republican presidential primary". Politico. February 28, 2020.
- "New York cancels Republican presidential primary". Politico. March 3, 2020.
- "New York cancels Democratic presidential primary". Politico. April 28, 2020.
- "Judge rules New York Democratic presidential primary will take place as planned". CNN. May 6, 2020.
- "Certified Results from the June 23, 2020 Presidential Primary Election" (PDF). New York State Board of Elections. September 18, 2020. Retrieved September 20, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: New York Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 3, 2020.
- Reisman, Nick (August 31, 2020). "NY Conservative Party Backs Trump's Re-Election". NY1. Retrieved September 10, 2020.
- Nichols, John (August 14, 2020). "The Working Families Party Endorses Biden and Harris". The Nation. Retrieved September 10, 2020.
- Slattery, Denis (October 26, 2020). "Working Families Party gets support from New Yorkers and U.S. Senators Schumer, Gillibrand". New York Daily News. Retrieved October 29, 2020.
- Independence Party of New York (August 24, 2020). "The Independence Party of New York Endorses Brock Pierce for President of the United States". PR Newswire. Retrieved September 10, 2020.
- "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
- "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
- David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
- "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
- "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
- "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
- "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
- "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
- "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
- "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
- "AMENDED Certification for the November 3, 2020 General Election" (PDF). New York Board of Elections. Retrieved December 8, 2020.
- "Governor Cuomo Signs Landmark Legislation Modernizing New York's Voting Laws". Governor Andrew M. Cuomo. January 24, 2019. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
- "NY May Speed Up And Permanently Expand Vote-By-Mail, Reform Absentee Count Process". NBC New York. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
- Bergin, Brigid (November 28, 2020). "NYC Blows Past Deadline To Certify General Election Results As Lawmakers Push Reforms". Gothamist. Retrieved November 29, 2020.
- Krieg, Gregory; Simko-Bednarski, Evan. "'It's embarrassing': Why New York is still waiting for full election results". CNN. Retrieved November 28, 2020.
- Lange, Chris Kahn, Jason (November 3, 2020). "Explainer: Red mirage, blue mirage - Beware of early U.S. election wins". Reuters. Retrieved December 30, 2020.
- "New York Election Results 2016". August 1, 2017 – via NYTimes.com.
- "New York Election Results". November 3, 2020 – via NYTimes.com.
- "Presidential Election Results: Biden Wins". November 3, 2020 – via NYTimes.com.
- "New York 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com.
- 2020 Election Results, New York State Board of Elections, December 3, 2020.
Further reading
- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
New York
External links
- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "New York", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "New York: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of New York". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- New York at Ballotpedia
