2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma

The 2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Oklahoma voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Oklahoma has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

Main article: 2020 United States presidential election
2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma
November 3, 2020
Turnout51.5% 2.5 pp[1]
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 7 0
Popular vote 1,020,280 503,890
Percentage 65.37% 32.29%
County Results
Trump
  40–50%
  50–60%
  60–70%
  70–80%
  80–90%
  90–100%

President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

 Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elections in Oklahoma
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Trump easily carried Oklahoma on Election Day by a margin of 33.08%, down from 36.39 points in 2016. Oklahoma was one of two states where Trump won every county, the other being West Virginia. This also signaled the fifth consecutive election in which the Republican candidate carried every county in the state. In this election, Trump also became the first presidential candidate ever to win more than a million votes in Oklahoma.[4] Biden came within 3,326 votes of winning Oklahoma's most populous county Oklahoma County, however, and he won more than 40% of the vote in Oklahoma's second-most populous county Tulsa. No Democratic presidential candidate has won Oklahoma County since Lyndon B. Johnson in his 1964 landslide, or Tulsa County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in his 1936 landslide. However, these gains in urban Oklahoma were offset by continued falloff in southeast Oklahoma, where Biden underperformed even Hillary Clinton's dismal performance 4 years earlier in most counties.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Oklahoma came from whites, with 71% support. Oklahoma, often termed the "Buckle of the Bible Belt", is a very religious state, with Trump capturing white Protestants by 78%.[5] Trump also exhibited considerable strength in the socially conservative but economically liberal area known as "Little Dixie", which historically votes Democratic at the local level, carrying Oklahoma's 2nd congressional district, which encompasses this region and its sizable conservative Native American population, by 54%.

Primary elections

The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.

Republican primary

Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Oklahoma Republican presidential primary[edit]

Trump won the state in a landslide victory against his five opponents.

2020 Oklahoma Republican primary[6][7]
Candidate Popular vote Delegates[8]
Count Percentage
Donald Trump 273,738 92.60% 43
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 10,996 3.72% 0
Matthew Matern 3,810 1.29% 0
Bob Ely 3,294 1.11% 0
Rocky De La Fuente 2,466 0.83% 0
Zoltan Istvan 1,297 0.44% 0
Total 295,601 100% 43

Democratic primary

Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and former Vice President Joe Biden were the major declared Democratic candidates.[9]

This section is an excerpt from 2020 Oklahoma Democratic presidential primary[edit]
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—<30%
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
2020 Oklahoma Democratic presidential primary[10]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[11]
Joe Biden 117,633 38.66 21
Bernie Sanders 77,425 25.45 13
Michael Bloomberg 42,270 13.89 2
Elizabeth Warren 40,732 13.39 1
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn†) 6,733 2.21 0
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn†) 5,115 1.68 0
Tulsi Gabbard 5,109 1.68 0
Tom Steyer (withdrawn†) 2,006 0.66 0
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 1,997 0.66 0
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 1,530 0.50 0
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 1,273 0.42 0
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 1,158 0.38 0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 680 0.22 0
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 620 0.20 0
Total 304,281 100% 37
†Candidate withdrew after early voting started.

Libertarian nominee
Main article: 2020 Libertarian Party presidential primaries
  • Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University

General election

Independent candidates

Three unaffiliated candidates filed to be on the Oklahoma presidential ballot, all by paying a $35,000 fee. Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins has filed a lawsuit challenging the amount of the filing fee.[12]

Ballot order

Oklahoma determines ballot order by lot, with unaffiliated candidates listed below candidates of recognized parties. The drawing was held on July 16th, with the resulting order for political parties being Republican, Libertarian, Democrat.[16] The unaffiliated candidates for president will be listed in this order: Jade Simmons, Kanye West, Brock Pierce [17]

Predictions
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[18] Safe R September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[19] Safe R September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] Safe R July 14, 2020
Politico[21] Safe R September 8, 2020
RCP[22] Safe R August 3, 2020
Niskanen[23] Safe R July 26, 2020
CNN[24] Safe R August 3, 2020
The Economist[25] Safe R September 2, 2020
CBS News[26] Likely R August 16, 2020
270towin[27] Safe R August 2, 2020
ABC News[28] Safe R July 31, 2020
NPR[29] Likely R August 3, 2020
NBC News[30] Safe R August 6, 2020
538[31] Safe R September 9, 2020

Graphical summary
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		 Dates
administered		 Dates
updated		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Other/
Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]		 Margin
270 to Win September 17, 2020 – October 20, 2020 October 28, 2020 38.5% 58.5% 3.0% Trump +20.0
FiveThirtyEight until October 27, 2020 October 28, 2020 36.4% 58.3% 5.3% Trump +21.9
Average 37.5% 58.4% 4.1% Trump +20.9

Polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump
Republican		 Joe
Biden
Democratic		 Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian		 Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,902 (LV) ± 3% 65%[lower-alpha 3] 35% - – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 3,191 (LV) – 59% 40% - – –
SoonerPoll/News 9/News on 6 Oct 15–20, 2020 5,466 (LV) ± 1.33% 59% 37% 1% 2%[lower-alpha 4] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 1,174 (LV) – 63% 35% - – 2%
Amber Integrated Sep 17–20, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.38% 55% 33% 1% 5%[lower-alpha 5] 6%
SoonerPoll/News9 Sep 2–8, 2020 486 (LV) ± 4.45% 60% 35% - 1%[lower-alpha 6] 4%
SoonerPoll Aug 13–31, 2020 379 (LV) ± 5.03% 60% 35% - 2%[lower-alpha 7] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 1,009 (LV) – 64% 35% - – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 1,410 (LV) – 64% 34% - – 4%
DFM Research/Abby Broyles for US Senate[upper-alpha 1] Jul 29–30, 2020 572 (LV) ± 4.1% 56% 36% - 5%[lower-alpha 8] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 591 (LV) – 61% 37% - – 1%
Amber Integrated Jun 3–4, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 55% 36% - 4%[lower-alpha 9] 5%
Amber Integrated Mar 5–8, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4 % 57% 33% - 4% 5%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass
& Associates/OK Sooner		 Feb 10–13, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.3% 62% 34% - – 4%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Bernie
Sanders (D)		 Other Undecided
Amber Integrated Mar 5–8, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4 % 59% 30% 5% 5%
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass
& Associates/OK Sooner		 Feb 10–13, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.3% 63% 34% – 3%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size[lower-alpha 2]		 Margin
of error		 Donald
Trump (R)		 Pete
Buttigieg (D)		 Other Undecided
Cole Hargrave Snodgrass
& Associates/OK Sooner		 Feb 10–13, 2020 500 (RV) ± 4.3% 61% 35% – 3%

Results
2020 United States presidential election in Oklahoma[32]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence 		1,020,280 65.37 +0.05%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris		 503,890 32.29 +3.36%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen		 24,731 1.58 -4.17%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball		 5,597 0.36 N/A
Independent Jade Simmons
Claudeliah Roze		 3,654 0.23 N/A
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard		 2,547 0.16 N/A
Total votes 1,560,699 100.0

Results by county
County[32] Trump Trump % Biden Biden % Others Others % Total
Adair 5,585 78.57% 1,387 19.51% 136 1.91% 7,108
Alfalfa 1,978 87.44% 232 10.26% 52 2.30% 2,262
Atoka 4,557 84.56% 765 14.20% 67 1.24% 5,389
Beaver 1,968 90.36% 190 8.72% 20 0.92% 2,178
Beckham 6,767 85.14% 1,048 13.19% 133 1.67% 7,948
Blaine 3,136 80.39% 688 17.64% 77 1.97% 3,901
Bryan 12,344 77.27% 3,323 20.80% 309 1.93% 15,976
Caddo 7,013 71.13% 2,670 27.08% 176 1.79% 9,859
Canadian 43,550 70.31% 16,742 27.03% 1,648 2.66% 61,940
Carter 14,699 75.46% 4,470 22.95% 310 1.59% 19,479
Cherokee 11,223 63.36% 6,027 34.02% 464 2.62% 17,714
Choctaw 4,698 80.56% 1,082 18.55% 52 0.89% 5,832
Cimarron 970 92.03% 70 6.64% 15 1.42% 1,054
Cleveland 66,677 55.67% 49,827 41.60% 3,274 2.73% 119,778
Coal 2,091 82.84% 374 14.82% 59 2.34% 2,524
Comanche 20,905 58.67% 13,747 38.58% 979 2.75% 35,631
Cotton 2,117 82.31% 393 15.28% 62 2.41% 2,572
Craig 4,686 77.69% 1,217 20.18% 129 2.14% 6,032
Creek 23,294 76.36% 6,577 21.56% 634 2.08% 30,505
Custer 8,060 75.39% 2,369 22.16% 262 2.45% 10,691
Delaware 13,557 78.61% 3,472 20.13% 216 1.25% 17,245
Dewey 2,124 90.04% 214 9.07% 21 0.89% 2,359
Ellis 1,688 90.12% 162 8.65% 23 1.23% 1,873
Garfield 16,970 75.66% 4,919 21.93% 541 2.41% 22,430
Garvin 8,878 81.29% 1,865 17.08% 179 1.64% 10,922
Grady 18,538 80.25% 4,144 17.94% 419 1.81% 23,101
Grant 1,916 86.07% 280 12.58% 30 1.35% 2,226
Greer 1,605 81.35% 328 16.62% 40 2.03% 1,973
Harmon 747 80.06% 177 18.97% 9 0.96% 933
Harper 1,327 89.24% 136 9.15% 24 1.61% 1,487
Haskell 4,165 83.07% 783 15.62% 76 1.52% 5,014
Hughes 3,875 79.78% 919 18.92% 63 1.30% 4,857
Jackson 6,392 77.75% 1,646 20.02% 183 2.23% 8,221
Jefferson 2,026 84.95% 319 13.38% 40 1.68% 2,385
Johnston 3,441 80.95% 738 17.36% 72 1.69% 4,251
Kay 12,834 74.40% 4,040 23.42% 375 2.17% 17,249
Kingfisher 5,521 85.40% 854 13.21% 90 1.39% 6,465
Kiowa 2,673 78.00% 699 20.40% 55 1.60% 3,427
Latimer 3,437 80.89% 762 17.93% 50 1.18% 4,249
Le Flore 15,213 80.90% 3,299 17.54% 293 1.56% 18,805
Lincoln 12,013 80.69% 2,609 17.52% 266 1.79% 14,888
Logan 15,608 72.35% 5,455 25.29% 511 2.37% 21,574
Love 3,305 81.08% 711 17.44% 60 1.47% 4,076
Major 3,084 88.95% 320 9.23% 63 1.82% 3,467
Marshall 4,891 80.66% 1,100 18.14% 73 1.20% 6,064
Mayes 12,749 76.68% 3,581 21.54% 296 1.78% 16,626
McClain 15,295 79.51% 3,582 18.62% 359 1.87% 19,236
McCurtain 9,485 82.72% 1,858 16.20% 124 1.08% 11,467
McIntosh 6,172 74.05% 2,031 24.37% 132 1.58% 8,335
Murray 4,612 78.25% 1,156 19.61% 126 2.14% 5,894
Muskogee 16,526 65.89% 8,027 32.00% 528 2.11% 25,081
Noble 3,821 77.38% 1,003 20.31% 114 2.31% 4,938
Nowata 3,610 82.21% 712 16.21% 69 1.57% 4,391
Okfuskee 3,058 75.73% 896 22.19% 84 2.08% 4,038
Oklahoma 145,050 49.21% 141,724 48.08% 7,966 2.70% 294,740
Okmulgee 9,668 67.55% 4,357 30.44% 288 2.01% 14,313
Osage 14,121 68.76% 6,002 29.22% 415 2.02% 20,538
Ottawa 8,545 74.71% 2,686 23.48% 207 1.81% 11,438
Pawnee 5,267 77.62% 1,363 20.09% 156 2.30% 6,786
Payne 17,813 60.09% 10,904 36.78% 926 3.12% 29,643
Pittsburg 13,851 77.28% 3,768 21.02% 305 1.70% 17,924
Pontotoc 10,805 70.53% 4,117 26.87% 398 2.60% 15,320
Pottawatomie 20,240 71.81% 7,275 25.81% 670 2.38% 28,185
Pushmataha 4,016 84.74% 668 14.10% 55 1.16% 4,739
Roger Mills 1,629 88.82% 168 9.16% 37 2.02% 1,834
Rogers 34,031 76.38% 9,589 21.52% 933 2.09% 44,553
Seminole 6,011 72.10% 2,150 25.79% 176 2.11% 8,337
Sequoyah 12,113 78.73% 3,035 19.73% 238 1.55% 15,386
Stephens 15,560 81.65% 3,154 16.55% 343 1.80% 19,057
Texas 4,505 81.60% 894 16.19% 122 2.21% 5,521
Tillman 2,076 76.66% 597 22.05% 35 1.29% 2,708
Tulsa 150,574 56.46% 108,996 40.87% 7,108 2.67% 266,678
Wagoner 26,165 74.04% 8,464 23.95% 709 2.01% 35,338
Washington 17,076 72.66% 5,790 24.64% 635 2.70% 23,501
Washita 4,086 85.53% 598 12.52% 93 1.95% 4,777
Woods 2,993 81.38% 591 16.07% 94 2.56% 3,678
Woodward 6,611 84.92% 1,005 12.91% 169 2.17% 7,785
All Counties 1,020,280 65.37% 503,890 32.29% 36,529 2.34% 1,560,699

By congressional district
District Trump Biden Representative
1st 60.11% 37.31% Kevin Hern
2nd 76.10% 22.15% Markwayne Mullin
3rd 74.58% 23.15% Frank Lucas
4th 65.23% 32.22% Tom Cole
5th 51.56% 45.95% Kendra Horn (116th Congress)
Stephanie Bice (117th Congress)

Native American voters

Donald Trump's win in the 2nd congressional district, by a margin of 54%, was his biggest victory in the state's five congressional district. The 2nd district has the highest proportion of Native Americans in the state. While Joe Biden fared better with Native American voters in several other Western states, such as Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Montana, Donald Trump carried the Native vote in Oklahoma decisively.

Electors
  • Republican Party electors

Ronda Vuillemont-Smith, Lonnie Lu Anderson, Chris Martin, Steve Fair, Linda Huggard, A. J. Ferate, Carolyn McLarty[33]

  • Libertarian Party electors

Erin Adams, Danny Chabino, Drew Cook, Kevin Hobbie, Rex Lawhorn, Jay Norton, Victoria Whitfield[34]

  • Democratic Party electors

Judy Eason McIntyre, Eric Proctor, Jeff Berrong, Christine Byrd, Demetrios Bereolos, Pamela Iron, Shevonda Steward[35]

  • Electors for Jade Simmons

Shanda Carter, Terrence Stephens, Hope Stephens, Elizabeth Stephens, Dakota Hooks, Phalanda Boyd, Quincy Boyd[36]

  • Electors for Kanye West

April Anderson, Craig Alan Weygandt, Will Flanagan, Tom Krup, Megan Krup, Gretchen Schrupp, David Schrupp[37]

  • Electors for Brock Pierce

Robert Murphy, Susan Darlene Murphy, Richard Prawdzienski, Jessy Artman, David Selinger, Shane Wayne Howell, Angela McCaslin[38]

Notes
  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. West (B) with 1%; Pierce (I) and Simmons (I) with 0%
  5. Pierce (I), Simmons (I), West (B) and "refused" with 1%
  6. West (B) with 1%; Pierce (I) and Simmons (I) with 0%
  7. Would not vote with 2%
  8. "Other candidate" with 5%
  9. "Neither" with 3%; "refused" with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. Poll sponsored by Broyles' campaign

See also

References
  1. "2020 November General Election Turnout Rates". United States Elections Project. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. Casteel, Chris (November 15, 2020). "Trump's Oklahoma County squeaker, Horn's Grady County connection and 3 other things about the election". The Oklahoman. Retrieved December 9, 2020.
  5. "Oklahoma Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 16, 2020.
  6. "Candidate Information". Oklahoma State Election Board.
  7. "Presidential Preferential Primary and Special Elections – March 3, 2020". OK Election Results. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  8. "Oklahoma Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
  9. Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  10. "Presidential Preferential Primary and Special Elections – March 3, 2020". OK Election Results. Oklahoma State Election Board. Retrieved March 25, 2020.
  11. "How Many Delegates Do The 2020 Democratic Presidential Candidates Have?". NPR.org. National Public Radio. Retrieved March 3, 2020.
  12. http://ballot-access.org/2020/07/16/howie-hawkins-files-federal-lawsuit-against-amount-of-oklahoma-presidential-filing-fee/
  13. https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Simmons,%20Jade_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf
  14. https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Pierce,%20Brock_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf
  15. https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/West,%20Kanye_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf
  16. https://www.ok.gov/triton/modules/newsroom/newsroom_article.php?id=196&article_id=59980
  17. https://mccarvillereport.com/archives/53255
  18. "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  19. "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  20. "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  21. "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  22. "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  23. 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  24. David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  25. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  26. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  27. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  28. "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  29. "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  30. "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  31. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  32. "OK election results". Retrieved November 27, 2020.
  33. https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Republican%20Certification%20Letter_Presidential%20Electors_072020_Redacted.pdf
  34. https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Libertarian%20Certification%20Letter_Electors-President%20and%20Vice%20President_2020_Redacted.pdf
  35. https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Democratic%20Certification%20Letter_Presidential%20Electors_072020_Redacted.pdf
  36. https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Simmons,%20Jade_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf
  37. https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/West,%20Kanye_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf
  38. https://www.ok.gov/elections/documents/Pierce,%20Brock_Statement%20of%20Candidacy.pdf
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