List of election bellwether counties in the United States
Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all, or almost all, elections. There are a total of 3,141 counties or county equivalents in the United States.[1] In the 2020 presidential election, almost all counties which had voted for the election winner between 1980 and 2016 did not continue their streaks as bellwethers, voting for Donald Trump as opposed to the winner of the election, Joe Biden; this was attributed to increasing political polarization brought about by an urban–rural divide in the U.S. (most bellwether counties having been rural).[2]
Significant bellwethers
The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the Electoral College in every election since 1980:
- Clallam County, Washington.[2] It last voted for a losing candidate in 1976.
Deviations in one election
The following counties have deviated from the winner of the Electoral College in one election since 1980:
- In 1988:
- Blaine County, Montana, voted for Michael Dukakis over George H. W. Bush by fifty-eight votes.[3] This is the only time it backed a losing candidate since 1912.
- Clay County, Minnesota, voted for Michael Dukakis over George H. W. Bush.[4] This is the only time it backed a losing candidate since 1968.
- In 1992:
- Door County, Wisconsin, voted for George H. W. Bush over Bill Clinton.[4] This was the only time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Essex County, New York, voted for George H. W. Bush over Bill Clinton.[4] This is the only time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Hillsborough County, New Hampshire, voted for George H. W. Bush over Bill Clinton.[5] This is the only time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Kent County, Delaware, voted for George H. W. Bush over Bill Clinton by 198 votes.[3] This is the only time it backed a losing candidate since 1948.
- Saratoga County, New York, voted for George H. W. Bush over Bill Clinton.[4] This is the only time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- In 2000 (winning candidate lost the popular vote):
- Pinellas County, Florida, voted for Al Gore over George W. Bush.[6] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- In 2004:
- Nicollet County, Minnesota, voted for John Kerry over George W. Bush by 132 votes.[4] This is the only time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Sullivan County, New Hampshire, voted for John Kerry over George W. Bush.[4] This is the only time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- In 2008:
- Chaffee County, Colorado, voted for John McCain over Barack Obama by eleven votes.[4] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- In 2012:
- Albany County, Wyoming, voted for Mitt Romney over Barack Obama by 408 votes.[7] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- In 2016 (winning candidate lost the popular vote):
- Bexar County, Texas, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[3] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1968.
- Buncombe County, North Carolina, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[3] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1960.
- Centre County, Pennsylvania, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[4] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- Clackamas County, Oregon, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[4] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- DeKalb County, Illinois, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[4] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- Merced County, California, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[3] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1968.
- San Bernardino County, California, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[3] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- San Joaquin County, California, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[3] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- Skagit County, Washington, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[4] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- Stanislaus County, California, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[3] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1968.
- Sandoval County, New Mexico, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[3] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1968.
- Ventura County, California, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[3] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- Will County, Illinois, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[4] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- Winnebago County, Illinois, voted for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.[4] This is the only time it voted for a losing candidate since 1976.
- In 2020:
- Bremer County, Iowa, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[4] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Cortland County, New York, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden by a narrow margin of just 420 votes.[4] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Essex County, Vermont, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[4] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Hidalgo County, New Mexico, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[3] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1968.
- Juneau County, Wisconsin, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[3] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1960.
- Marquette County, Wisconsin, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[4] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Otsego County, New York, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[4] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Ottawa County, Ohio, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[3] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1960.
- Richland County, Wisconsin, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[4] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Sawyer County, Wisconsin, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[3] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1960.
- Shiawassee County, Michigan, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[4] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Valencia County, New Mexico, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden,[3] losing what was, at the time, the longest streak of correct electoral predictions, running all the way from 1952 until 2016.[8] As such, this was the county's first time backing a losing candidate since 1948.
- Van Buren County, Michigan, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[4] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Vigo County, Indiana, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[3] This broke its streak of correct predictions, which dated back to 1956 and was second only to that of Valencia County, New Mexico.[8] As such, this was the county's first time backing a losing candidate since 1952.
- Warren County, Illinois, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[4] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Washington County, Maine, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[4] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.
- Westmoreland County, Virginia, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[3] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1960.
- Wood County, Ohio, voted for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.[9] This was the first time it backed a losing candidate since 1976.[4] Considered a bellwether for the state of Ohio, it features both Republican-leaning rural culture and a Democratic-leaning university of about 20,000 students (as of 2020).[6]
Deviations in two elections
The following counties have deviated from the winner of the Electoral College in two elections since 1980:
- Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020.[4]
- Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016.[4]
- Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004.[4]
- Brewster County, Texas, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Bureau County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Butte County, California, in 1996 and 2012.[4]
- Caddo Parish, Louisiana, in 2000 and 2016.[4][lower-alpha 1]
- Caledonia County, Vermont, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- Calhoun County, Michigan, in 2000 and 2020.[4]
- Calhoun County, South Carolina, in 1980 and 2020.[4]
- Cascade County, Montana, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Cass County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Chesapeake, Virginia, in 1992 and 1996.[4]
- Chickasaw County, Mississippi, in 1980 and 2016.[4]
- Clark County, Washington, in 1988 and 2016.[4]
- Clear Creek County, Colorado, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- Coles County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Colleton County, South Carolina, in 1980 and 2020.[4]
- Columbia County, Wisconsin, in 2000 and 2020.[4]
- Coös County, New Hampshire, in 2004 and 2020.[3]
- Cayuga County, New York, in 2000 and 2020.[4]
- Chautauqua County, New York, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Delaware County, Indiana, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Dutchess County, New York, in 1992 and 2016.[4]
- Eagle County, Colorado, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana, in 1992 and 2016.[4]
- Elk County, Pennsylvania, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Essex County, Virginia, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Fayette County, Kentucky, in 1992 and 2016.[4]
- Fresno County, California, in 1996 and 2016.[4]
- Gladwin County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Gloucester County, New Jersey, in 2000 and 2004.[4]
- Grand County, Utah, in 1996 and 2012.[4]
- Guilford County, North Carolina, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- Gunnison County, Colorado, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- Hill County, Montana, in 1988 and 2020.[4]
- Hillsborough County, Florida, in 1992 and 2016.[3]
- Houston County, Minnesota, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Island County, Washington, in 1996 and 2016.[4]
- Jefferson County, Iowa, in 2004 and 2020.[4]
- Jo Daviess County, Illinois, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Kankakee County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Kennebec County, Maine, in 2000 and 2004.[4]
- Lake County, Illinois, in 1992 and 2016.[4]
- Larimer County, Colorado, in 1996 and 2016.[4]
- Latah County, Idaho, in 1988 and 2016.[4]
- Lenawee County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Lincoln County, Maine, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- Lincoln County, Wisconsin, in 1988 and 2020.[4]
- Luna County, New Mexico, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Madison County, New York, 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Manistee County, Michigan, in 2000 and 2020.[4]
- Marion County, Oregon, in 1992 and 2012.[4]
- Marshall County, Iowa, in 1988 and 2020.[4]
- Marshall County, South Dakota, in 1988 and 2020.[4]
- Mason County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- McDonough County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Menominee County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Monroe County, Indiana, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- Monroe County, Michigan, in 2000 and 2020.[4]
- Monroe County, Wisconsin, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Montgomery County, Virginia, in 2012 and 2016.[4]
- Northampton County, Pennsylvania, in 2000 and 2004.
- Oconto County, Wisconsin, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Oneida County, Wisconsin, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Orange County, New York, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Orange County, Vermont, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- Orleans County, Vermont, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- Oswego County, New York, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Penobscot County, Maine, in 2004 and 2020.[4]
- Pike County, Mississippi, in 1980 and 2016.[4]
- Pitt County, North Carolina, in 1996 and 2016.[4]
- Porter County, Indiana, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Presque Isle County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Racine County, Wisconsin, in 1988 and 2020.[4]
- Radford, Virginia, in 1980 and 2016.[4]
- Ransom County, North Dakota, in 1988 and 2020.[4]
- Rensselaer County, New York, in 2000 and 2004.[4]
- Riverside County, California, in 1996 and 2016.[4]
- Rockingham County, New Hampshire, in 1992 and 2012.[4]
- Rockland County, New York, in 2000 and 2016.[4][lower-alpha 1]
- Routt County, Colorado, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- Sandusky County, Ohio, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- San Diego County, California, in 1996 and 2016.[4]
- San Luis Obispo County, California, in 1996 and 2016.[4]
- Sargent County, North Dakota, in 1988 and 2020.[3]
- Sauk County, Wisconsin, in 2000 and 2004. [4]
- Schuyler County, Illinois, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Seneca County, New York, in 2000 and 2020.[4]
- Spencer County, Indiana, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- St. Joseph County, Indiana, in 2000 and 2016.[4][lower-alpha 1]
- Stark County, Ohio, in 2004 and 2020.[4]
- Starke County, Indiana, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Sullivan County, New York, in 2000 and 2020.[4]
- Sumter County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016.[4]
- Teton County, Wyoming, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- Traverse County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2020.[4]
- Tuscarawas County, Ohio, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Union County, Iowa, in 1988 and 2020.[4]
- Val Verde County, Texas, in 2016 and 2020.[3]
- Vanderburgh County, Indiana, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Wake County, North Carolina, in 1996 and 2016.[4]
- Warren County, New York, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Washington County, New York, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Watonwan County, Minnesota, in 2012 and 2020.[4]
- Whitman County, Washington, in 2012 and 2016.[4]
- Williamsburg, Virginia, in 2004 and 2016.[4]
- Winnebago County, Wisconsin, in 1992 and 2020.[4]
- Winona County, Minnesota, in 2000 and 2004.[4]
Notes
- This county voted with the popular vote each time.
References
- "How many counties are in the United States?". United States Geological Survey. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
- McCormick, John (November 13, 2020). "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
- Obeng, Adam (April 26, 2016). "There Are No Bellwether Counties". The Huffington Post. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
- Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved November 22, 2020.
- "The White House: Obama's Path to Victory". Time. Vol. 180 no. 21. November 19, 2012. pp. 16–17.
- Wasserman, David (October 6, 2020). "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble". The New York Times. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
- "Statewide Candidates Official Summary" (PDF). Secretary of State of Wyoming. November 6, 2012. Retrieved December 8, 2012.
- Epstein, Reid J. (November 8, 2020). "A county in Washington claims the title for the longest streak of picking presidential winners". The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 8, 2020. Retrieved November 19, 2020.
- "Ohio Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 20, 2020.
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