2020 United States presidential election predictions

Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used:

  • Tossup: No advantage
  • Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
  • Lean: Slight advantage
  • Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR)
  • Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
State or district EV PVI
[1]		 2016 result 2020 result Cook
Oct 28, 2020 [2]		 Inside Elections
Oct 28, 2020 [3]		 Sabato
Nov 2, 2020 [4]		 Politico
Nov 2, 2020 [5]		 Real Clear Politics
Oct 29, 2020 [6]		 Niskanen Center
Nov 3, 2020 [7]		 CNN
Nov 2, 2020 [8]		 The Economist
Nov 3, 2020 [9]		 CBS News
Nov 1, 2020 [10]		 270 to Win
Nov 3, 2020 [11]		 ABC News
Nov 2, 2020 [12]		 NPR
Oct 30, 2020 [13]		 NBC News
Oct 27, 2020 [14]		 Five Thirty Eight[lower-alpha 1]
Nov 2, 2020 [15]
 
Alabama 9 R+14 62.1% R 62.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Alaska 3 R+9 51.3% R 52.8% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R Likely R Tossup Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R
Arizona 11 R+5 48.1% R 49.4% D
(flip)		 Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
Arkansas 6 R+15 60.6% R 62.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
California 55 D+12 61.7% D 63.5% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D
Colorado 9 D+1 48.2% D 55.4% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Lean D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D
Connecticut 7 D+6 54.6% D 59.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D
Delaware 3 D+6 53.1% D 58.7% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D
District of Columbia 3 D+41 90.9% D 92.2% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D
Florida 29 R+2 49.0% R 51.2% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely D (flip) Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
Georgia 16 R+5 50.8% R 49.5% D
(flip)		 Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup
Hawaii 4 D+18 62.2% D 63.7% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D
Idaho 4 R+19 59.3% R 63.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Illinois 20 D+7 55.8% D 57.5% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D
Indiana 11 R+9 56.8% R 57.0% R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Solid R
Iowa 6 R+3 51.2% R 53.1% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R
Kansas 6 R+13 56.7% R 56.2% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Solid R
Kentucky 8 R+15 62.5% R 62.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Louisiana 8 R+11 58.1% R 58.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Solid R
Maine 2 D+3 47.8% D 53.1% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D
ME-1 1 D+8 54.0% D 60.1% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D N/A Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D
ME-2 1 R+2 51.3% R 52.3% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Likely R Tossup N/A Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Maryland 10 D+12 60.3% D 65.4% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D
Massachusetts 11 D+12 60.1% D 65.6% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D
Michigan 16 D+1 47.5% R 50.6% D
(flip)		 Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Solid D (flip)
Minnesota 10 D+1 46.4% D 52.4% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Tossup Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Solid D
Mississippi 6 R+9 57.9% R 57.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Missouri 10 R+9 56.8% R 57.6% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Safe R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R
Montana 3 R+11 56.2% R 56.9% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Likely R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R Lean R Likely R Likely R
Nebraska 2 R+14 58.8% R 58.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
NE-1 1 R+11 56.2% R 56.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R N/A Likely R Safe R Solid R Lean R Solid R Solid R
NE-2 1 R+4 47.2% R 52.0% D
(flip)		 Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) N/A Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
NE-3 1 R+27 73.9% R 75.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R N/A Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Nevada 6 D+1 47.9% D 50.1% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Tossup Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D
New Hampshire 4 D+1 47.0% D 52.7% D Lean D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D Safe D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D Lean D Likely D
New Jersey 14 D+7 55.0% D 57.3% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D
New Mexico 5 D+3 48.4% D 54.3% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D
New York 29 D+11 59.0% D 60.9% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D
North Carolina 15 R+3 49.8% R 48.6% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip) Tossup Tossup Lean D (flip)
North Dakota 3 R+16 63.0% R 65.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Ohio 18 R+3 51.7% R 53.3% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Oklahoma 7 R+20 65.3% R 65.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Oregon 7 D+5 50.1% D 56.5% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D
Pennsylvania 20 EVEN 48.2% R 50.0% D
(flip)		 Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Rhode Island 4 D+10 54.4% D 59.4% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D
South Carolina 9 R+8 54.9% R 55.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Lean R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Likely R
South Dakota 3 R+14 61.5% R 55.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Tennessee 11 R+14 60.7% R 60.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Texas 38 R+8 52.2% R 52.1% R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Lean R Lean R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R
Utah 6 R+20 45.5% R 58.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Likely R Solid R Likely R Likely R Solid R
Vermont 3 D+15 56.7% D 66.1% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D
Virginia 13 D+1 49.7% D 54.1% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Lean D Safe D Solid D Likely D Likely D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D Solid D
Washington 12 D+7 52.5% D 58.0% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Solid D Likely D Safe D Solid D Safe D Likely D Safe D Solid D Likely D Solid D Solid D
West Virginia 5 R+19 68.5% R 68.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Wisconsin 10 EVEN 47.2% R 49.5% D
(flip)		 Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Tossup Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip) Likely D (flip)
Wyoming 3 R+25 67.4% R 70.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Solid R Safe R Solid R Safe R Likely R Safe R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Overall 538 EVEN D: 232
R: 306
 D: 306
R: 232
 D: 290
R: 125
Tossup: 123		 D: 350
R: 125
Tossup: 63		 D: 321
R: 217
Tossup: 0		 D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96		 D: 216
R: 125
Tossup: 197		 D: 318
R: 123
Tossup: 97		 D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96		 D: 334
R: 164
Tossup: 40		 D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96		 D: 279
R: 163
Tossup: 96		 D: 321
R: 125
Tossup: 92		 D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134		 D: 279
R: 125
Tossup: 134		 D: 334
R: 169
Tossup: 35

Notes
  1. Tossup: 50%–59%, Lean: 60%–74%, Likely: 75%–94%, Solid: 95%–100%

References
  1. Coleman, Miles (December 15, 2017). "2016 State PVI Changes – Decision Desk HQ". Decision Desk HQ. Archived from the original on June 13, 2018. Retrieved July 27, 2019.
  2. "2020 Electoral College Ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Archived (PDF) from the original on October 28, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  3. "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections. April 3, 2020. Retrieved April 14, 2020.
  4. "2020 President". Sabato's Crystal Ball. July 14, 2020. Retrieved July 14, 2020.
  5. Shepard, Steven; et al. (November 19, 2019). "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. Retrieved November 19, 2019.
  6. "Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. April 19, 2019. Archived from the original on May 3, 2020. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  7. https://www.270towin.com/maps/niskanen-center-electoral-college-predictions
  8. "CNN's final 2020 Electoral College outlook: A remarkably stable race comes to an end". CNN. November 2, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  9. "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Archived from the original on July 5, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  10. "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Archived from the original on July 12, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  11. "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  12. "ABC News Race Ratings". ABC News. July 24, 2020. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  13. Montanaro, Domenico (October 30, 2020). "Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path". NPR. Archived from the original on November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 3, 2020.
  14. Todd, Chuck; Murray, Mark; Dann, Carrie; Holzberg, Melissa (October 27, 2020). "Biden continues to lead in our latest battleground map". NBC News. Washington, D.C. Archived from the original on October 27, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2020.
  15. "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. 2020. Archived from the original on September 11, 2020. Retrieved November 2, 2020.

Further reading
This article is issued from Wikipedia. The text is licensed under Creative Commons - Attribution - Sharealike. Additional terms may apply for the media files.